GF SECURITIES·2026-03-06 06:28Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD.com, with a target price of 34.11 USD per ADS and 129.83 HKD per share [3][10]. Core Insights - JD.com reported a total revenue of 352.28 billion RMB for Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.5%. The adjusted net profit was 1.08 billion RMB, reflecting a net profit margin of 0.3%, down from 3.3% in the same quarter last year [7]. - The retail business showed resilience, with daily necessities continuing to grow at double-digit rates. Retail revenue for Q4 2025 was 301.9 billion RMB, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 3.2% [7]. - New business losses narrowed quarter-on-quarter, with new business revenue reaching 14.09 billion RMB and an operating loss of 14.8 billion RMB. JD's food delivery service showed healthy growth, with stable order volume and improved operational efficiency [7][9]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2025 decreased by 56% year-on-year, influenced by new business investments and price competition in the home appliance category [7][9]. - The forecast for 2026-2028 indicates expected revenues of 1,395.36 billion RMB, 1,485.51 billion RMB, and 1,517.77 billion RMB, with adjusted net profits of 28.91 billion RMB, 40.49 billion RMB, and 45.94 billion RMB respectively [8][10]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth rates are projected at 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027, and 2.2% for 2028. The adjusted net profit margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 3.0% by 2028 [8][19]. - The adjusted operating profit for JD's retail segment in 2026 is estimated at 54.79 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.6% [12]. - The report anticipates that the food delivery business will continue to develop healthily, with new business revenue projected to reach 73.92 billion RMB in 2026 [8][9].