需求端持续跟进，关注上游实际停车动态

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran has not eased, and the supply of raw materials such as crude oil, methanol, and propane is uncertain. Domestic olefin enterprises may reduce their production, and the cost of propylene has increased significantly, which continues to boost the price. - Against the background of deepening losses in PDH profits, the peak of PDH maintenance may continue, and the reduction in supply will support the price. - After the holiday, the downstream start - up gradually recovers, the downstream buying is active, and the spot price has risen significantly. The new production capacity of butanol - octanol and acrylic acid is expected to be put into production, which may drive some demand growth, but the demand follow - up under the profit pressure of other downstream industries still needs to be observed. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main propylene contract is 7085 yuan/ton (-3), the spot price in East China is 7350 yuan/ton (+350), and in North China is 7370 yuan/ton (+355). The basis in East China is 265 yuan/ton (+353), and in Shandong is 285 yuan/ton (+358). The operating rate is 73% (+1%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 114 US dollars/ton (-29), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is - 119 US dollars/ton (-25), the import profit is - 355 yuan/ton (+231), and the factory inventory is 44640 tons (-330). [1] - Propylene downstream: The operating rate of PP powder is 27% (+3.67%), and the production profit is - 120 yuan/ton (-175); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 80% (+0%), and the production profit is - 580 yuan/ton (-25); the operating rate of n - butanol is 86% (+1%), and the production profit is 629 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of octanol is 95% (-2%), and the production profit is - 14 yuan/ton (-91); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 79% (-1%), and the production profit is 1132 yuan/ton (+302); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 75% (-1%), and the production profit is - 1536 yuan/ton (-220); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 88% (+0%), and the production profit is - 107 yuan/ton (+51). [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: The conflict between the US and Iran has affected the supply of raw materials, and domestic olefin enterprises may reduce production. The loss of PDH profits has deepened, and the peak of PDH maintenance may continue. Some PDH devices are under maintenance or have maintenance plans, which will lead to a reduction in supply and support the price. [2] - Demand side: After the holiday, the downstream start - up gradually recovers, the downstream buying is active, and the spot price has risen significantly. The profit of butanol - octanol is still good, and the willingness to replenish inventory after the holiday may be strong. The new production capacity of butanol - octanol and acrylic acid is expected to be put into production, which may drive some demand growth, but the demand follow - up under the profit pressure of other downstream industries still needs to be observed. [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices. - Inter - period: No strategy is provided. - Inter - variety: No strategy is provided. [3]