股债跷跷板延续，国债期货全线收跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. The stock market's performance, the unchanged LPR, the continued expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the increased trade uncertainty due to the Iran conflict have added uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price Index: China's CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and year - on - year, while PPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month and decreased by 1.4% year - on - year [9]. - Monthly Economic Indicators: Social financing scale reached 449.11 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.99 trillion yuan or 1.58%. M2 year - on - year growth was 9.00%, up 0.50% or 5.88% month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, down 0.30% or 0.61% month - on - month [10]. - Daily Economic Indicators: The US dollar index was 98.80, down 0.26 or 0.26% day - on - day. The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 6.8930, down 0.029 or 0.42% day - on - day. SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.41, with no change in value and a decrease of 0.21% day - on - day. DR007 was 1.42, with no change in value and an increase of 0.13% day - on - day. R007 was 1.56, down 0.12 or 6.95% day - on - day. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.51, down 0.02 or 1.47% day - on - day. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with no change in value and a decrease of 1.47% day - on - day [11]. 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Closing Price and Fluctuation: On March 5, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.50 yuan, 106.12 yuan, 108.55 yuan, and 112.77 yuan respectively, with fluctuations of - 0.02%, - 0.03%, - 0.03%, and - 0.05% respectively [3]. - Net Basis Spread: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.011 yuan, 0.041 yuan, - 0.004 yuan, and 0.182 yuan respectively [3]. 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - Monetary Policy: The Politburo meeting on December 8 signaled a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to continue such policies in 2026, with the potential for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. On January 19, 2026, a basket of interest rates such as re - loans and rediscounts was lowered by 0.25 percentage points [1]. - Inflation: In January, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year [1]. - Fiscal Situation: In 2025, fiscal revenue and expenditure did not meet expectations. Revenue was dragged down by weak tax revenue and a high non - tax base, with the annual general public budget revenue decreasing by 1.7% year - on - year. Expenditure was front - loaded, with the year - end intensity weakening and the annual completion rate being low. In 2026, fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with increased spending and a continued front - loaded rhythm [2]. - Financial Data: In January, new social financing reached 7.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 166.2 billion yuan year - on - year. Government bond net financing rebounded, indicating front - loaded fiscal efforts. M1 year - on - year growth rebounded to 4.9%, M2 growth rebounded to 9%, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed to 4.1%. The growth rate of RMB loans fell to 6%, while the deposit growth rate rebounded to 10.1%, with an expanding gap between deposit and loan growth rates, indicating relatively abundant funds in the banking system but stable credit demand and some idle funds [2]. - Central Bank Operations: On March 5, 2026, the central bank conducted 23 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - Money Market Interest Rates: The main term repurchase rates 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.267%, 1.412%, 1.461%, and 1.547% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 3.4 Spread Overview The report provides various spread data, including the inter - period spread trends of treasury bond futures, and the spread relationships between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads, such as (4TS - T), (2TS - TF), (2TF - T), (3T - TL), and (2TS - 3TF + T) [34][36][38]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents data on the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, as well as the IRR of the TS main contract and the relationship with the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract [43][45]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures It includes data on the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the relationship with the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract [47][54]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows data on the implied yield and maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the relationship with the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract [55][57]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures It provides data on the implied yield and maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the relationship with the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract [60][63]. 3.9 Strategies - Single - Side Strategy: With the decline of repurchase rates, treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis spread [4]. - Hedging Strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].