社融增速的几种读法：社融增速见底了吗？

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current social financing growth rate has at least ended the stage of unilateral decline. In some statistical calibers, there is a trend of rising from the bottom [3][45] - The decline space of the current social financing growth rate is very limited, and the actual financing demand of enterprises is expected to rise from the bottom. The original unilateral decline guidance needs to be re - thought [5] - The social financing growth rate and M2 supply should match the economic development and expected price level in 2026, and it may not be what the policy wants to see if it is significantly lower than the sum of the two [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Has the social financing growth rate bottomed out? 1.1 Different calculation methods of social financing growth rate - Due to the changes in the social financing caliber and the impact of debt resolution in the past two years, the guiding effect of social financing on the bond market has weakened. The report conducts multi - caliber analysis of social financing and restores the impact of debt resolution to analyze its details and future trends [12] - Since 2018, the social financing statistical caliber has been adjusted many times. In 2025, government bonds accounted for more than 20% of the social financing stock. Excluding government bonds, the social financing growth rate has oscillated around 6% in the past two years, and its guiding significance for interest rates has become stronger [14] - After excluding government bonds, further excluding corporate bill financing and undiscounted bank acceptances, the social financing growth rate has increased slightly in the past two years, and its guiding significance for interest rates has also become stronger [17][18] - Credit cannot fully reflect the real - entity financing demand. In 2025, A - share new financing marginally rebounded, and H - share new financing continued to climb. There is a substitution effect between corporate loans and industrial bonds, and the loan - bond spread is the core driving factor [20][24][28] - The decline of the balance growth rate of enterprise core credit financing has slowed down and has been relatively stable in the past six months. Considering non - financial industrial bonds, the core social financing growth rate of enterprises has increased significantly since the fourth quarter of 2025 [33][35] 1.2 What are the impacts of debt resolution? - Since the debt - resolution policy in 2023, especially after the local government bond swap for implicit debt policy in 2024, it has impacted the social financing growth rate and credit growth rate [39] - After restoring the impact of debt resolution, the credit growth rate, the social financing growth rate excluding government bonds, and the social financing growth rate excluding government bonds and bills in 2025 all experienced a process of rising first and then falling. Using enterprise core social financing (including industrial bonds) for restoration, the growth rate can be observed to oscillate and rebound at the bottom [41] 2. What are the policy requirements for the social financing growth rate? - The government work report in 2026 stated that the social financing scale and money supply growth should match the economic growth and price level expected target. In the past few years, the social financing growth rate was basically higher than the sum of the two, but the social financing growth rate excluding government bonds was lower than that. In 2025, the social financing growth rate excluding government bonds was only 5.94%. In 2026, the decline space of the social financing growth rate is limited, and the actual financing demand of enterprises is expected to rise from the bottom [48][49]