中东线船舶调至欧线，3月下半月运价逐步修正

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the EC2604 contract nearing delivery, investors are advised to closely follow the spot market and operate flexibly, considering the profit - loss ratio. The contract's settlement price will become clearer about one and a half months before the delivery month, and its volatility will gradually converge [4]. - The EC2606, EC2607, and EC2608 contracts for the relatively peak seasons of June, July, and August are expected to have relatively strong short - term trends. However, since these contracts have risen significantly from the bottom, the actual freight rates in the future are still uncertain, and investors need to respond flexibly [5]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 for arbitrage, with no unilateral strategy at present [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of March 5, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 74,605.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 209,509.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2607, EC2608, EC2609, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1768.00, 1805.00, 1950.10, 2066.40, 2010.00, 1498.30, 1394.90, and 1677.30 respectively [6]. 3.2 Spot Prices - On February 27, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1420 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1857 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2691 US dollars/FEU. On March 2, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1463.40 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1045.08 points [6]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static Supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU were delivered in 2026. Among them, 6 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 86,000 TEU, and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU was delivered, with a capacity of 17,148 TEU. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 679,000 TEU (46 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,224,000 TEU (84 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,636,000 TEU (81 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 (January - June) [2][3]. - Dynamic Supply: The average weekly capacity of the China - European base port in March was 268,600 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 10/11/12/13/14 were 149,100/309,200/289,500/262,400/333,000 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in April was 287,900 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 15/16/17/18 were 299,300/314,500/299,400/238,500 TEU respectively. There were 11 blank sailings in March (4 by the OA Alliance, 1 by the Gemini Alliance, and 6 by the MSC/PA Alliance), and 3 TBNs in April. The latest capacity data shows that the average weekly capacity of the China - Europe route in March was 299,000 TEU, and in April it was 327,000 TEU [3][4]. 3.4 Supply Chain - The probability of the Suez Canal resuming navigation in the first half of the year is relatively low. In the Iran incident, the Houthi rebels' resumption of attacks on shipping in the Red Sea corridor may confirm this expectation. COSCO emphasized that the process from trial resumption to full resumption may be a gradual one lasting 3 - 5 months. The resumption of the Red Sea route requires multiple conditions to be met, including industry association evaluation, insurance companies reducing premiums, customer recognition of safety, and internal consensus within the alliance [5]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The monthly year - on - year growth rate of the demand side of the Asia - Europe route has been relatively high, with the year - on - year growth rate of container trade volume in most months exceeding 10% [5].