余粮仅3成，玉米刷新近年新高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the slowdown in new grain sales, the remaining grain is limited and tight in the Northeast; public bidding and import auctions supplement the supply. Demand is differentiated, and corn prices will continue to oscillate and rebound in the first half of the year, with a cautious outlook for the upside. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase spot goods as needed and maintain sufficient reserves; traders should buy low and sell high [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Price Trends - The corn main 2605 contract continued to rise this week, once reaching 2400. The spot price rose steadily. The flat - hatch price of corn in Bayuquan increased from 2350 yuan/ton to around 2390 yuan/ton; the arrival price of corn at Shekou Port increased from 2490 yuan/ton to around 2520 yuan/ton. The corn basis oscillated, and the futures price was close to the spot price. The starch main 2605 contract rebounded and rose this week. The starch price increased, and the starch price of Weifang Jinyu increased from 2860 yuan/ton to around 2920 yuan/ton, with the basis oscillating and strengthening [4] 3.2 Grain Sales Progress - As of March 5, the total national grain sales progress was 70%, 5% slower than the same period last year. Among them, the progress in the Northeast was 71%, 4% slower; in North China, it was 62%, 8% slower; in the Northwest, it was 80%, 5% slower. After the Spring Festival, the grain sales rhythm slowed down due to limited remaining grain. However, as the temperature warms up, ground - stored grain may be sold in a concentrated manner. The supply in the Northeast is still tight, and Northeast corn is in high demand due to grain quality differentiation. As the grain source further transfers to the middle and lower reaches, it is expected that the ability to hold grain for higher prices will further increase [4] 3.3 Inventory Situation - As of February 27, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 172.7 tons, a month - on - month decline and at a low level in recent years; the weekly shipping volume was 23.2 tons, continuing to decline. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port continued to rise to 74.3 tons, while the foreign - trade corn inventory decreased to 14.9 tons month - on - month. The inventories of downstream deep - processing and feed enterprises decreased. As of March 6, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 343.7 tons, continuously decreasing and at the lowest level in recent years; the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 30.25 days, also continuously decreasing recently. At high prices, downstream enterprises are cautious in their procurement [5] 3.4 Substitute and Import Situation - The wheat price rose slightly, and the corn price increased, narrowing the wheat - corn price difference, but there is still no substitution advantage at present. Since last October, China's corn imports have increased significantly and may continue to increase in the future to adjust the domestic corn supply and demand [5] 3.5 External Market Situation - Due to the conflict between the United States and Iran, the rising energy prices may boost the price of bio - fuels, which in turn boosts the price of U.S. corn. In addition, the increase in fertilizer prices may raise the planting cost, and the U.S. Agricultural Outlook Forum expects the planting area of U.S. corn to decrease this year [5] 3.6 Demand Situation - Feed demand: Pig prices are low, and the pig - raising industry is in full - scale loss again. As of March 6, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 58.89 yuan per head, turning from profit to loss; the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 237.98 yuan per head, in serious loss. The national inventory of breeding sows in December was 39.61 million, continuing to decrease; the national inventory of live pigs was 429.67 million, showing the first month - on - month decline in recent years and only a slight year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In January, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms increased slightly, and the culling rate decreased significantly; the production of piglets increased, but the sales volume decreased; the inventory of commercial pigs decreased month - on - month again. In the poultry industry, egg prices declined, and the poultry - raising industry remained in loss. In January, the sales volume of chicken chicks continued to increase, and the culling of old chickens remained at a high level; the inventory of laying hens decreased month - on - month again in January but was still at a high level. Due to the losses, breeding enterprises may be cautious in restocking again. The current high inventory still supports feed demand, but in the long run, the capacity may continue to be reduced, which is unfavorable for the growth of feed demand [6] - Deep - processing demand: The processing profits of starch processing enterprises are mostly in the red, and the operating rate of enterprises has recovered compared with before the Spring Festival. As of March 6, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 54.52%, a month - on - month increase but at a low level in recent years. The starch inventory was 121.9 tons, continuously increasing. Alcohol processing enterprises suffered significant losses, and the operating rate was 54.08%, a month - on - month decline and at the lowest level in recent years. The operating rate of downstream starch sugar enterprises recovered, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises increased [6]