2026年集运欧线期货期权白皮书：集运欧线：回首向来萧瑟处也无风雨也无晴

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the supply - demand of the container shipping market will remain loose, and prices will face downward pressure. The new ship delivery will continue, the supply growth rate of container shipping will probably exceed the demand, and the imbalance between supply and demand of shipping capacity will become more obvious. The biggest variable in 2026 is the resumption of navigation in the Red Sea. If the Red Sea resumes navigation, the over - capacity contradiction in the European route will intensify, and the freight rate center may move down further. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bearish mindset. If the Red Sea resumes navigation, keep holding short positions and continuously lower the stop - profit/loss line. If the Red Sea situation becomes tense again, adjust the downward space [5][110]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part - Container Shipping Industry Chain Analysis - The container shipping industry chain consists of upstream shipbuilding and leasing, mid - stream freight forwarding and main - line transportation by shipowners, and downstream foreign trade enterprises. The mid - stream container shipping companies have the highest concentration in the industry chain [16]. 3.2 Second Part - Introduction to Container Shipping (European Route) Futures Contracts - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Rate Index (European Route) Futures, the first shipping - related futures in China, was listed on the international platform of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on August 18, 2023, which improved the shipping derivatives market in China [17]. - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Rate Index represents the change direction and degree of the settlement freight rate of the Shanghai export container spot shipping market, with a base period of June 1, 2020, and a base - period index of 1000 points. It is released at 15:00 (Beijing time) every Monday [18][23]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to list the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Rate Index (European Route) Futures Contracts. The contract multiplier is 50 yuan per point, with a minimum change of 0.1 points. The contract months are February, April, June, August, October, and December. It uses cash settlement [24][26]. 3.3 Third Part - Long - term Trend and 2025 Market Summary 3.3.1 Spot Market Long - term and 2025 Trend Analysis - The global container shipping market can be divided into four stages since 2009: the market downturn (2009 - 2020), the sharp rise in freight rates (2020 - 2021), the decline from the high - level freight rates (2022 - 2023), and the sharp fluctuation of freight rates (2023 - present) [31]. - In 2025, the container shipping market showed a downward trend. From the beginning of the year to early October, the supply - side pressure was significant, the new ship orders were at a record high, and due to the shrinking demand on the US route, ships were transferred to the European route, increasing the shipping capacity. The weak recovery of European terminal demand led to an imbalance between supply and demand [34]. 3.3.2 Futures Market Trend Analysis - Since its listing in August 2018, 2023, the container shipping European route futures have experienced significant fluctuations. The futures market has unique features such as early start and end of the market, larger price changes than the spot market, and large basis fluctuations. In 2025, both the futures and spot prices of the container shipping European route showed an oscillating trend, and the volatility decreased significantly [35][39]. 3.3.3 Container Shipping European Route Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest - In 2025, the activity level of the container shipping European route market was roughly the same as in 2024. The cumulative trading volume was 11,584,397 lots, with an average monthly trading volume of 965,366 lots. The cumulative trading value was 1,589.6 billion yuan, with an average monthly trading value of 132.5 billion yuan [44]. 3.4 Fourth Part - Container Shipping Market Demand Analysis 3.4.1 China's Economy and China - EU Trade Analysis - In 2024 and 2025, China's GDP cumulative year - on - year growth was 5.0%. In 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The EU remained China's second - largest trading partner, with a trade value of 5.93 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.0% [49][51]. 3.4.2 European Economy and Import - Export Trade Analysis - In 2025, the European economy showed a weak and moderate growth. The EU and the Eurozone both achieved positive GDP growth, but the recovery of member states was uneven. The monthly trade surplus increased significantly, but the cumulative surplus decreased slightly, and the trade performance of different countries varied greatly [56]. 3.5 Fifth Part - Container Shipping Market Supply Analysis 3.5.1 Global Container Shipping Capacity Supply Analysis - In 2025, the delivery of container ships decreased, while the delivery of dry bulk carriers and oil tankers increased. The number of container ships delivered was 270, with a total capacity of 2.183 million TEU. The container ship scrapping volume decreased significantly in 2025. The global container shipping capacity continued to grow in 2025, but the growth rate slowed down compared with 2024. It is expected that the global container shipping fleet capacity net growth rate will be about 2 - 4% from 2026 - 2027, slower than in 2025 [68][73][79]. 3.5.2 Asia - Europe Route Container Shipping Efficiency Analysis - The on - time rate of the Asia - Europe route in 2025 was significantly higher than in 2024. The reshuffle and reorganization of liner alliances in 2025 played a key role in improving the on - time rate of the route. For example, the on - time rate of the 5 - month Asia - Northern Europe route of the Gemini Alliance was as high as 85.4% [81]. 3.6 Sixth Part - Other Factors Analysis 3.6.1 Geopolitical Analysis - The Red Sea incident has been an important factor affecting the container shipping European route in recent years. In 2025, the Red Sea incident's support for the European route container shipping freight rate weakened, but its impact still persisted throughout the year. As of February 26, 2026, the Red Sea entered a "safety test + gradual resumption of navigation" stage, but the safety risk still exists. If the Red Sea resumes navigation on a large scale in early 2026, about 20% of the detoured shipping capacity will be released [86][89]. 3.6.2 BDI Trend Analysis - The BDI index reflects the cycle of the shipping market to some extent. It experienced a significant rise and fall cycle in recent years. In 2023, it dropped to a recent low, and in 2025, it bottomed out and continued to rise [90]. 3.7 Seventh Part - Hedging Case Analysis - A logistics company used the container shipping European route futures to hedge against the risk of freight rate increase. By buying long positions in the EC2508 contract, it effectively hedged the risk of freight rate increase in spot shipping, with a net hedging gain of 47,450 yuan [95][97]. 3.8 Eighth Part - Technical Analysis 3.8.1 Seasonal Analysis - The container shipping European route price and cargo volume show seasonal characteristics. January - March is the traditional off - season, April - June shows an oscillating upward trend, July - September is the peak season with short - term callbacks, and October - December is the end of the peak season with the price first stable and then rising [98][100][101]. 3.8.2 Technical Analysis - Based on the weekly K - line analysis of the container shipping European route, it is currently in a downward channel, with the highs continuously decreasing. Technically, above 4000 points may become history, with a resistance level of 2890 and a support level of 910 [102]. 3.9 Industry Enterprises' Outlook for 2025 - Different institutions have different views on the container shipping European route in 2026. Goldman Sachs is bearish and lowered the annual price forecast to $1800/FEU. Morgan Stanley believes that if the Red Sea conflict recurs, the freight rate may exceed $3000/FEU. CMA CGM predicts a weak container shipping market in 2026. Clarksons believes that the container shipping freight rate will decline significantly in 2026. Huaguangyuanhai believes that the container shipping price from Shanghai to Europe will continue the downward trend in 2026 [105][106][109]. 3.10 Summary and 2026 Operation Suggestions - In 2026, the supply of container shipping European route capacity will continue to grow, but the demand growth rate is lower than the supply, and the contradiction of oversupply is prominent. The Red Sea resumption of navigation is a major variable. It is recommended to keep a long - term bearish mindset [110]. 3.11 Appendix - Shipping - related Stocks - As of November 27, 2025, the stocks of COSCO SHIPPING FINANCIAL HOLDING CO.,LTD. (601866.SH) had a current price of 2.51 with an annual decline of 2.30%, China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. (601872.SH) had a current price of 9.03 with an annual increase of 45.53%, and COSCO SHIPPING HOLDING CO.,LTD. (601919.SH) had a current price of 14.83 with an annual increase of 6.13% [114].