2026年钢矿期货期权白皮书：沉舟侧畔，千帆过病树前头万木春

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the terminal market will experience significant structural differentiation. Real - estate steel demand is expected to continue its negative growth. Fiscal policy may increase investment in general infrastructure, but the growth rate of traditional high - steel - consuming infrastructure may slow down. Manufacturing steel demand is also differentiated, and the impact on steel demand in 2026 may be relatively neutral. Steel exports will remain at a high level, but the growth rate will slow down [3]. - In the steel market, the supply side is relatively certain. Under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the crude steel output will decline slightly year - on - year in 2026. The short - process steelmaking ratio is expected to increase slowly, and the decline of pig iron output will be smaller than that of crude steel [3]. - In the iron ore market, the domestic iron ore supply will be released slowly in 2026, while the global iron ore market has entered a supply - release period. However, China's iron ore demand faces pressure from economic structure transformation and a decline in steel consumption intensity. The global iron ore demand lacks growth points in 2026 [3]. - In 2026, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be in a wide - range fluctuation. The rebar price is expected to be in the range of 2,900 - 3,500 yuan, with a slightly higher price center than in 2025, and the price may be slightly higher in the first half of the year. The hot - rolled coil price is expected to be in the range of 3,100 - 3,700 yuan. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 650 - 900 yuan, with a price center similar to that in 2025 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel and Iron Ore Industry Chain Analysis - Steel - making Process: There are two steel - making processes in China's steel industry: long - process and short - process. Long - process steel - making has a long production process, a wide range of raw materials, high production efficiency, and stable product quality. Short - process steel - making has less pollution and lower energy consumption, but lower production efficiency [14][15]. - Industry Chain Structure: The upstream of the steel industry mainly includes raw materials such as iron ore and fuel. The mid - stream is mainly the production of crude steel and various steel products. The downstream is the application fields of steel, including infrastructure, construction, machinery, automotive, and home appliance industries [17][18]. - Iron Ore Mining and Processing: The iron ore mining and processing process includes exploration, mining, crushing, screening, grinding, beneficiation, and transportation [22]. 3.2 Introduction to Steel and Iron Ore Futures and Options Contracts - Rebar Futures and Options Contracts: Rebar futures are traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The trading unit is 10 tons per lot, and the minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton. The contract months are from January to December. The delivery system includes physical delivery [26][29]. - Hot - rolled Coil Futures Contracts: Hot - rolled coil futures are also traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The trading unit is 10 tons per lot, and the minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton. The contract months are from January to December. The delivery system includes physical delivery [36][38]. - Iron Ore Futures and Options Contracts: Iron ore futures are traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The trading unit is 100 tons per lot, and the minimum price change is 0.5 yuan/ton. The contract months are from January to December. The delivery system includes physical delivery [49][51]. 3.3 Long - term Trends and 2025 Market Summary - Spot Market: Since 2011, the prices of steel and iron ore in the spot market have generally gone through four stages: decline (2011 - 2015), rise (2016 - 2018), sharp fluctuation (2019 - 2022), and decline again (2023 - present). In 2025, the steel spot price continued to decline, and the iron ore spot price fluctuated within a range [66][73]. - Futures Market: The long - term trends of rebar and iron ore futures are similar to those of the spot market. In 2025, the rebar futures price continued to decline, and the iron ore futures price fluctuated within a range [81][86]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: In 2025, the trading volume and open interest of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures were generally average, with a significant increase in July [92]. 3.4 Terminal Market Demand Analysis - Real - estate Steel Demand: Since 2016, real - estate policies have gone through four stages: strict regulation, stable transformation, risk resolution, and full - force market stabilization. In 2025, the decline in real - estate sales narrowed, but investment continued to decline, and steel demand for real - estate is expected to be negative in 2026 [101][102][111]. - Infrastructure Steel Demand: Since 2021, the growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) has continued to decline. In 2025, it decreased by 2.2% year - on - year. The growth of infrastructure investment depends on the issuance of special bonds [112]. - Manufacturing Steel Demand: Since 2021, the prosperity of the manufacturing industry has declined. In 2025, the investment growth rate slowed down, but it was still better than that of real - estate and infrastructure. The steel demand in the automotive, construction machinery, and home appliance industries showed different trends [115]. - Steel Exports: In 2025, China's steel exports maintained strong resilience. The export volume reached a record high, but the growth rate slowed down in the later stage. In 2026, steel exports are expected to remain at a high level [127][129]. 3.5 Steel Market Supply Analysis - Crude Steel Supply: Since 2021, China's crude steel output has declined. In 2025, the crude steel output was 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. In 2026, it is expected to continue to be below 1 billion tons, with a slight year - on - year decline [134][137]. - Pig Iron Supply: In recent years, the growth rate of pig iron output has been lower than that of crude steel, mainly due to the development of short - process steel - making. In 2026, pig iron output is expected to continue to decline, but the decline may be smaller than that of crude steel [138][144]. 3.6 Iron Ore Market Supply Analysis - New Iron Ore Production Capacity: In the next five years, the four major iron ore mines are expected to add a total of 200 million tons of new production capacity. In 2025, Vale is expected to add 40 million tons of new production capacity, and FMG is expected to add 22 million tons [147][150]. - Shipping Targets of the Four Major Mines: The shipping/target output of the four major mines has generally been increasing in recent years. In 2026, the guidance targets of the mines are expected to move up further [151]. - China's Iron Ore Imports: China's iron ore import dependence remains above 80%. In 2025, the import volume was 1.259 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. In 2026, the import volume is expected to remain at a high level, but with low growth [160][162]. - Domestic Iron Ore Supply: In 2025, China's domestic iron ore output decreased to less than 1 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In 2026, the domestic iron ore supply is expected to be released slowly [166]. 3.7 Steel and Iron Ore Market Inventory Analysis - Steel Market Inventory: In 2025, the inventory of rebar was relatively low, and it started to accumulate in the National Day period. The inventory of hot - rolled coil was relatively high, and it showed a significant accumulation trend after the National Day [168][170]. - Iron Ore Market Inventory: In 2025, the steel - mill inventory of imported iron ore was continuously low. The port iron ore inventory decreased in the first half of the year and increased in the second half, but it was still lower than that in 2024. High port inventory will suppress the market trend in 2026, especially in the first half [175]. 3.8 Forecast of Steel and Iron Ore Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Steel Supply - Demand Balance: In the future, the output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel products will have low growth or negative growth. In 2026, domestic steel demand is expected to improve slightly, and exports will remain at a high level but with a low growth rate [177][180]. - Iron Ore Supply - Demand Balance: In 2025, the global iron ore market was in oversupply, and the price was in a downward trend. In 2026, the global iron ore supply will continue to increase, and demand lacks growth points [181]. 3.9 Futures Hedging Cases of Steel and Iron Ore Enterprises - Rebar Futures Hedging: A medium - sized construction company successfully hedged the price increase risk of rebar procurement through futures hedging in 2025, achieving the goal of locking in procurement costs [187][190]. - Iron Ore Futures Hedging: A steel - processing enterprise successfully hedged the price increase risk of iron ore procurement through futures hedging in 2025, achieving the goal of locking in raw material costs [191]. 3.10 Technical Analysis and Outlook of Futures Prices - Seasonal Analysis: Historically, rebar futures perform well in January and December, and are likely to decline in August. Hot - rolled coil futures perform well in January, June, and December, and are likely to decline in August and September. Iron ore futures perform well in January, November, and December, and are likely to decline in August [192][193][197]. - Technical Analysis: From the monthly chart of the main rebar contract, the rebar is in a downward channel. The main hot - rolled coil contract is also in a downward trend. The main iron ore contract fluctuates in a wide range [199][201][206]. 3.11 Option Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - For steel products in 2026, considering the seasonal characteristics, it is recommended to buy call options at low prices before the peak season, and buy put options at high crude - steel output and low - demand seasons. When the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the double - buying strategy is recommended [207]. - For iron ore, when the hot - metal output is above 2.4 million tons, it is advisable to buy put options. In a volatile market, the double - buying strategy can be considered [211]. 3.12 Industry Enterprise Research and 2026 Outlook - Different industry experts have different views on the 2026 steel and iron ore market. Some believe that the steel price will fluctuate around the average cost line, and the iron ore supply will be relatively loose; others believe that the steel price center may stop moving down, but the steel - mill profit may shrink [212]. 3.13 Summary of the Full Text and 2026 Operation Suggestions - Summary: In 2026, the macro - economy is expected to stabilize. The domestic demand for steel lacks long - term growth points, and the export growth rate will slow down. The crude steel output will decline slightly. The rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and the iron ore price will also fluctuate in a wide range [215][216]. - Operation Suggestions: For rebar and hot - rolled coil, it is recommended to conduct band trading in 2026. Pay attention to the phased trading opportunities of the hot - rolled coil - to - rebar spread. For options, buy call options at low prices before the peak season and buy put options at high - output and low - demand seasons. For iron ore, suppliers can consider selling for hedging, and steel mills can maintain a low - inventory strategy. Pay attention to the opportunity of selling the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio [217].