现货成交略有抬升，但铜价仍陷震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] 2. Core View of the Report - In March, the copper market is at a critical period of supply - demand re - balance. The global inventory is at a high level on the supply side, and there is still pressure in the first ten days. On the demand side, the resumption of work improves after the Lantern Festival, but high copper prices inhibit restocking, and there is uncertainty in inventory depletion. The mine end is tight, and the macro - level is mixed. Copper prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and rise slowly. If the crude oil price continues to rise, it will have a positive impact on copper prices [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On March 5, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 101,640 yuan/ton and closed at 101,080 yuan/ton, a - 0.57% decrease from the previous trading day's closing. The night - session main contract opened at 100,440 yuan/ton and closed at 100,980 yuan/ton, a 0.35% increase from the afternoon closing of the previous day [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - The spot discount of Shanghai copper is expected to continue the steady repair trend. The contango C spread continues to converge slightly, and the willingness of holders to deliver to the warehouse decreases. On the supply side, domestic copper and previously locked - price imported goods continue to arrive, and the social inventory is at a high level, so the market circulation of goods is abundant. On the demand side, downstream enterprises' resumption of work and production continues to advance, and the decline in Shanghai copper futures prices increases the downstream's willingness to buy at low prices, and the order activity increases, supporting the spot discount. Overall, the overall trading activity of Shanghai copper spot is expected to remain stable [2] 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Geopolitical Aspect - The Middle East conflict situation continues to escalate. Iran is prepared to deal with a US ground invasion, refuses to restart negotiations with the US, and refutes the claim of blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The US president's statement about participating in determining Iran's next supreme leader is strongly refuted by Iran. Israel launches the 13th round of air strikes on Tehran, and the US is adding resources to support the war for "at least 100 days or even until September" [3] 3.2.2 Tariff Aspect - 24 US states sue to block the new tariff measures announced by the Trump administration. The US Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration's previous tariff - imposing practice was illegal, but Trump invoked the 122nd clause of the 1974 Trade Act to impose a 15% tariff on most global products [3] 3.2.3 Mine End Aspect - MMG Ltd. is seeking merger and acquisition opportunities to expand its copper mine asset portfolio, focusing on projects in Latin America and Africa and may complete acquisitions in the short term. Las Bambas copper mine has a contingency plan for Peru's next - month election and will invest 800 - 850 million US dollars in capital expenditure this year for facility upgrades [4] 3.2.4 Smelting and Import Aspect - LME fines PGS 250,000 pounds (about 334,175 US dollars) for violating warehouse rules. PGS stored copper in an open - air area outside the facility, which violates LME's core standards. This incident may affect its warehouse registration qualification and market reputation [4] 3.3 Consumption and Inventory 3.3.1 Consumption - High copper prices previously suppressed demand. Enterprises mainly made batch - by - batch rigid - demand purchases. In different fields, electricity orders are strongly supported, while construction and communication orders are weak, showing a differentiated consumption pattern. After the Lantern Festival, with the full resumption of work in terminal industries, the demand in electricity and new energy fields will improve, but the recovery in traditional fields such as construction is slow. It will take time for overall consumption to return to the pre - holiday level, and the inventory depletion progress in mid - to - late March will be a key observation indicator [5] 3.3.2 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 3,850 tons to 282,200 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,157 tons to 303,632 tons. On March 5, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 577,200 tons, a change of 17,200 tons from the previous week [5] 3.4 Strategy 3.4.1 Spot Enterprises - In early March, maintain a cautious procurement strategy, use the deep - discount structure to buy on - demand at low prices, and avoid high - position centralized procurement [6] 3.4.2 Mid - stream Processing Enterprises - First, digest pre - holiday raw material and finished - product inventories, and increase procurement efforts after confirming inventory depletion signals in mid - to - late March [6] 3.4.3 Holders - Reduce inventory exposure at high prices to avoid the risk of spot discount expansion under high - inventory pressure [6] 3.4.4 Futures Hedging Operations - Conduct corresponding buying and selling hedging operations for Shanghai copper in the range of 100,000 - 104,600 yuan/ton. Adjust the hedging ratio according to the proximity to the upper and lower limits of the range [6]