美伊战事升级，各方态度仍强硬

Market Analysis - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, with all parties taking a tough stance. Iran is prepared for a US ground invasion and rejects restarting negotiations. The US is increasing resources to support the war for at least 100 days. 24 US states are suing to block new tariff measures, and Trump has imposed a 15% tariff on most global products [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On March 5, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,153.56 yuan/gram and closed at 1,152.00 yuan/gram, a change of -0.09% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,135.48 yuan/gram, a 1.43% drop from the afternoon close [2] - On the same day, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 21,700.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,639.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -0.98% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 412,856 lots, and the open interest was 143,059 lots. The night session closed at 21,305 yuan/kilogram, a 1.54% drop from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 5, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.136%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year to 2-year spread was 0.566%, also unchanged [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Precious Metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On March 5, 2026, on the Au2604 contract, long positions decreased by 769 lots and short positions decreased by 377 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 327,375 lots, a change of -44.15% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2604 contract, long positions decreased by 4,100 lots and short positions decreased by 4,940 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,190,686 lots, a change of -16.91% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,081.04 tons, a decrease of 18 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,948 tons, a decrease of 33 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On March 5, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 6.54 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 697.42 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 53.24, a change of 0.90% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 59.73, a change of -7.81% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On March 5, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 50,766 kilograms, a change of -45.80% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 431,928 kilograms, a change of -20.99% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The market risk sentiment has increased, and the demand for gold investment may slightly decrease. It is expected that the gold price will be in a volatile pattern in the near future, with the Au2604 contract oscillating between 1,100 yuan/gram and 1,200 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Neutral. Silver is experiencing a price decline along with gold. Due to market liquidity issues, the price is also expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with the Ag2604 contract oscillating between 21,000 yuan/kilogram and 22,000 yuan/kilogram [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]