日度策略参考-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pay attention to the emotional resonance of the Asia - Pacific stock market, especially the market - rescue strategy launched by South Korea, and observe the emotional transmission of external markets such as the South Korean stock index; also focus on the evolution of the Middle East war situation. If the geopolitical situation eases, the short - term adjustment of the stock index will bring good long - position layout opportunities [1]. - The market fluctuates under the intertwined influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure brought by fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks [1]. - The deterioration of the Middle East situation suppresses market risk appetite, and the continuous accumulation of domestic and foreign copper inventories leads to a continued weak adjustment of copper prices [1]. - Although the Middle East situation suppresses market risk appetite, the supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East continues to heat up, and the rising energy prices increase costs, so aluminum prices continue to rise [1]. - The uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the concern about zinc ore supply support zinc prices, and the short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, so zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - The complex and changeable Middle East situation and the tightening concern of Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB quota make nickel prices likely to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to go long on dips while controlling risks [1]. - The raw material prices of stainless steel rise after the festival, the social inventory increases, and the futures price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to pay attention to low - long opportunities while controlling risks [1]. - The inflation risk heats up, putting short - term pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector, and tin prices fluctuate with high volatility. Investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. - The continuous conflict between the US and Iran, geopolitical games, inflation concerns, and a strong US dollar continue to disturb the precious metal market, and the prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - The supply of industrial silicon increases in the northwest and decreases in the southwest, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon decline in December [1]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is strong due to factors such as strong energy storage demand, battery export rush, and mine - end disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1]. - The spot of steel products has not fully recovered. It is necessary to observe the spot start - up situation around the Lantern Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1]. - The iron ore has obvious upward pressure, and it is not recommended to chase the long position at this position [1]. - The short - term supply and demand of some products are weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy benefits, and cost support are positive for prices [1]. - The short - term supply and demand of glass are weak, but the expected reduction in supply, intensified geopolitical conflicts, and rising energy prices provide cost support [1]. - Soda ash follows glass, is affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term, and faces price pressure in the medium term due to looser supply and demand [1]. - Geopolitical conflicts drive up the prices of energy - chemical products, and coal and coke prices strengthen. It is necessary to pay attention to the market logic moving towards stagflation, and relevant trading operations need to be cautious [1]. - The sharp rise in crude oil will drive up the prices of oils and fats, but the current fundamental pressure of oils and fats is large, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the decline after the stagnation of crude oil prices [1]. - Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise gradually with demand recovery and planting reduction expectations [1]. - The global sugar market is under increasing supply pressure in the 2025/26 season, and the domestic sugar market is in a situation of loose supply. It is expected that Zheng sugar prices will have limited fluctuations and maintain an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - The corn price is supported by factors such as fast grain sales in the Northeast, stable downstream breeding demand, and low post - festival inventory, but it is necessary to be vigilant against negative feedback from high prices [1]. - The soybean FOB price is under pressure due to Brazil's bumper harvest, and the upside of the soybean meal futures price is limited in the short term [1]. - The softwood pulp is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the post - festival port inventory [1]. - The log spot price rises, and the futures price has an upward driving force [1]. - The pig spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. - The Middle East conflict leads to risks and premiums in the commodity market, and the prices of fuel oil and asphalt are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and cost support [1]. - The prices of BR rubber, PTA, and other chemical products are affected by geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [1]. - The prices of some chemical products such as urea, methanol, and PVC are affected by factors such as export, supply - demand, and geopolitical situations [1]. - The PG price is affected by factors such as CP price, geopolitical conflict, and demand, showing a strong trend, but there are also differentiation and pressure factors [1]. - The container shipping European line is affected by war emotions, red - sea situation, and shipping company price - increasing intentions [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock Index: Pay attention to the emotional resonance of the Asia - Pacific stock market and the evolution of the Middle East war situation. If the geopolitical situation eases, the short - term adjustment of the stock index will bring good long - position layout opportunities [1]. - Treasury Bond: The market fluctuates under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure brought by fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The deterioration of the Middle East situation suppresses market risk appetite, and the continuous accumulation of domestic and foreign copper inventories leads to a continued weak adjustment of copper prices [1]. - Aluminum: The supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East continues to heat up, and the rising energy prices increase costs, so aluminum prices continue to rise. Domestic alumina has a weak fundamental situation and short - term price fluctuations [1]. - Zinc: The uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the concern about zinc ore supply support zinc prices, and the short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, so zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Nickel: The complex and changeable Middle East situation and the tightening concern of Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB quota make nickel prices likely to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to go long on dips while controlling risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material prices rise after the festival, the social inventory increases, and the futures price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to pay attention to low - long opportunities while controlling risks [1]. - Tin: The inflation risk heats up, putting short - term pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector, and tin prices fluctuate with high volatility. Investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium: The continuous conflict between the US and Iran, geopolitical games, inflation concerns, and a strong US dollar continue to disturb the precious metal market, and the prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Industrial Silicon: The supply increases in the northwest and decreases in the southwest, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon decline in December [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The demand is strong due to factors such as strong energy storage demand, battery export rush, and mine - end disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1]. Black Metals - Steel Products (Threaded Steel, Hot - Rolled Coil): The spot has not fully recovered. It is necessary to observe the spot start - up situation around the Lantern Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1]. - Iron Ore: The upward pressure is obvious, and it is not recommended to chase the long position at this position [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Geopolitical conflicts drive up the prices, but it is necessary to pay attention to the market logic moving towards stagflation, and relevant trading operations need to be cautious [1]. - Glass: The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the expected reduction in supply, intensified geopolitical conflicts, and rising energy prices provide cost support [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, is affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term, and faces price pressure in the medium term due to looser supply and demand [1]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise gradually with demand recovery and planting reduction expectations [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar market is under increasing supply pressure in the 2025/26 season, and the domestic sugar market is in a situation of loose supply. It is expected that Zheng sugar prices will have limited fluctuations and maintain an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn: The price is supported by factors such as fast grain sales in the Northeast, stable downstream breeding demand, and low post - festival inventory, but it is necessary to be vigilant against negative feedback from high prices [1]. - Soybean Meal: The soybean FOB price is under pressure due to Brazil's bumper harvest, and the upside of the soybean meal futures price is limited in the short term [1]. - Softwood Pulp: Expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the post - festival port inventory [1]. - Log: The spot price rises, and the futures price has an upward driving force [1]. - Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil and Asphalt: Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, cost support, and demand recovery [1]. - BR Rubber: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, cost support, and supply - demand relationships, the price has an upward space [1]. - PTA: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and production capacity maintenance, the supply is expected to tighten [1]. - Other Chemical Products (Urea, Methanol, PVC, etc.): Affected by factors such as export, supply - demand, and geopolitical situations [1]. - PG: Affected by factors such as CP price, geopolitical conflict, and demand, showing a strong trend, but there are also differentiation and pressure factors [1]. Others - Container Shipping European Line: Affected by war emotions, red - sea situation, and shipping company price - increasing intentions [1].