两会政府工作报告解读：聚焦“提质”扩内需

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on "quality improvement" and expanding domestic demand as key strategies for economic growth in 2026, aligning with the government's new five-year plan [3] - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at a range of 4.5-5%, down from approximately 5% in 2025, allowing more room for structural adjustments and risk prevention [3] - The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," while the fiscal policy continues to be actively supportive, with a deficit rate maintained at 4.0%, leading to an increase in the deficit scale to 5.89 trillion yuan, up by 230 billion yuan from last year [3] - The report highlights the importance of stabilizing nominal prices, with a CPI target set at around 2%, aiming for a recovery in nominal price growth as a key focus of macroeconomic policy [3] Economic Policy Adjustments - The report outlines a shift in policy focus from "consumption recovery" to "consumption activation," with plans to allocate 250 billion yuan in special bonds for trade-in programs and 800 billion yuan for infrastructure projects [3] - It introduces the concept of a "smart economy" as a new growth driver, emphasizing the need for enhanced independent innovation capabilities to support high-quality development [3] - Specific emerging industries are identified, including integrated circuits, aerospace, biomedicine, and low-altitude economy, with a focus on future industries like quantum technology and brain-computer interfaces [3] Real Estate Market Stabilization - The report stresses the need to stabilize the real estate market through targeted measures, including controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply [3] - The approach to real estate policy is shifting from risk management to optimizing the structure of existing stock and revitalizing it for purposes such as affordable housing [3] Capital Market Implications - The report suggests that the stabilization of nominal prices may lead to a recovery in asset prices, with the A-share market likely entering a phase driven by profit recovery [3] - The AI industry chain is expected to see continued capital expenditure growth, with a closed-loop logic emerging around domestic AI models, cloud services, and computing power [3] - The report anticipates an increase in the allocation of cyclical resource products in response to the recovery of domestic nominal prices and expectations of overseas re-inflation [3]