沪锌期货月报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In February 2026, zinc prices went through a process of decline and stabilization, with a rebound at the end of the month. Fundamentally, the continuous increase in inventory exerts pressure on prices, but technically, there is some support. It is expected that zinc prices may maintain a volatile consolidation in the short - term, and the future direction remains to be confirmed. The continuous increase in inventory may limit the upside space of prices, and changes in the macro - economic environment may affect the demand expectation for zinc [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - In February 2026, the zinc futures (ZN.SHF) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a trend of decline and then stabilization and rebound. The monthly price range was from 24,210 yuan/ton to 25,965 yuan/ton, and the closing price at the end of the month was lower than that at the beginning. The market experienced three stages within the month: a rapid correction at the beginning, a low - level oscillation in the middle, and a stabilization and rebound at the end [2] 3.2 Spot Market Analysis - In February 2026, the zinc spot market price showed a trend of first falling and then rising. The average price of Chinese 0 zinc ingots remained stable at 24,610.1677 yuan/ton throughout the month. The price of 0 zinc ingots (Zn99.995) fluctuated down from 24,970 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 24,330 yuan/ton in the middle, and then slightly rebounded to 24,438 yuan/ton at the end. The zinc futures and spot prices maintained a relatively stable price difference, with the futures price fluctuating around the spot price. Most of the time, the futures price was slightly lower than the spot price, showing a slight contango state [3] 3.3 Market Dynamics - In February 2026, the inventory of zinc ingots in China showed a continuous upward trend, increasing from 111.3 thousand tons on February 2nd to 180.2 thousand tons on February 26th, indicating relatively sufficient market supply [4] 3.4 Market Outlook - Zinc prices in February experienced a process of decline and stabilization, with a rebound at the end. Fundamentally, the rising inventory exerts pressure on prices, but technically, there is support. Short - term zinc prices may maintain a volatile consolidation, and the future direction is to be determined. Rising inventory may limit price increases, and macro - economic changes may affect demand expectations [6]