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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Iran situation has escalated, with potential impacts on energy, precious metals, and shipping sectors. Crude oil and gold may rise in the short - term, but there is a risk of "selling on the news". An escalation could increase global inflation risks [1]. - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, while after the Two Sessions, the stock index rebounds. The A - share index has limited pressure during the sessions, and the commodity sector has significant pressure. After the sessions, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 lead in terms of gains and win - rates [2]. - There are opportunities for bottom - fishing in commodities and stock index futures. Consider going long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Iran situation has escalated after the US - Israel air strike on February 28. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran launched a large - scale counter - attack, damaging energy and production facilities in the Middle East and its surrounding areas. The conflict may affect crude oil, methanol, LPG, precious metals, and shipping. The probability of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked is low, but the political direction after a possible regime change in Iran is unclear and may impact oil exports and nuclear negotiations [1]. - The US 2025 Q4 GDP growth rate was 1.4% (annualized), lower than the expected 2.5%. The US PPI in January rose 0.5% month - on - month. The US February ADP employment increased by 63,000, the highest in three months. The Fed is vigilant about the Middle East situation and is not in a hurry to adjust the monetary policy stance [2]. - China's January social financing had a good start, indicating that pro - growth policies may be implemented in advance. China's February official manufacturing PMI was 49, and non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5 [2]. Commodity Analysis - In the non - ferrous metals sector, the long - term supply constraint remains unresolved, with high certainty. Precious metals have allocation value after the adjustment. In the energy sector, pay attention to the short - term evolution of the Iran situation, and beware of the "selling on the news" risk. OPEC+ will increase production by 206,000 barrels per day from April, higher than the market expectation [3]. - In the chemical sector, PTA, PVC and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage. For agricultural products, pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig diseases. For the black metal sector, focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [3]. Strategy - Go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [4]. Important News - The State Council Information Office will hold a briefing on March 7, 2026, to interpret the "15th Five - Year Plan". - The China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman will report on the work of increasing the proportion of equity financing. - The government work report sets the 2026 economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, and plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [5]. - An American oil tanker was hit by an Iranian missile in the Persian Gulf on March 5 [5]. - The US February ADP employment increased by 63,000, the highest in three months [5].