2025年纺织品期货期权白皮书：纺织品：新棉上市压价承，去库春风暖意升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated within a wide range of 12,400 - 14,300 yuan/ton, driven by both macro - policies and industrial supply - demand. ICE U.S. cotton futures prices trended downward. In 2026, U.S. cotton prices may show a "first - depressed, then - stable" wide - range oscillation pattern, while Zhengzhou cotton may have a "first - depressed, then - rising" trend [2][3][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Historical Market Review - Since its listing in 2004, cotton futures prices have experienced nine major periods of significant fluctuations affected by national policies, international trade, and supply - demand changes in the industrial chain [13] - In 2025, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated in the range of 12,400 - 14,300 yuan/ton, with six main stages throughout the year. ICE U.S. cotton futures prices trended downward overall, with a slight rebound at the end of October [23][24][32] 3.2 Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Trading and Position - holding - In 2025, the position - holding volume of domestic cotton futures increased significantly. By December 11, the total position - holding volume reached 1,138,013 lots, with an annual average of 816,094.60 lots. As of October 7, the non - commercial net long positions in ICE cotton futures decreased [37][38] 3.3 Global Cotton Supply - Demand - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production increased by 92,000 tons to 26.096 million tons, consumption decreased by 44,000 tons to 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 136,000 tons to 16.353 million tons [41] - In the U.S., the 2025/26 cotton production is expected to be 3.03 million tons, with a decrease in export volume and an increase in ending inventory. Brazil's cotton production reached a record high in 2025, with exports continuing to grow strongly. India's cotton market in 2025 showed a pattern of "declining production, surging imports, weak consumption, and rising inventory" [49][68][88] 3.4 Domestic Cotton Supply - Demand - In 2025, China's cotton planting area increased, with Xinjiang's output expected to exceed 7 million tons. The cost of new cotton is fixed, and cotton farmers' income depends on national subsidies [97][107] - In 2025, China's imported cotton volume decreased significantly, with Brazilian cotton becoming the main source. The profits of textile enterprises were polarized, and the domestic textile terminal's domestic and foreign demands were slightly differentiated [118][133][136] 3.5 Outlook for the Cotton Market in 2026 - Abroad, in the short - term, U.S. cotton futures prices are under pressure, and may fall to 60.64 cents/pound by the end of the quarter. In the long - term, prices are expected to stabilize gradually, showing a "first - depressed, then - stable" wide - range oscillation pattern [147] - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton may show a "first - depressed, then - rising" trend throughout the year. The core operating range may be between 14,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [153] 3.6 Seasonal Analysis - From the seasonal chart of the cotton futures index, April and December are more likely to see rising cotton prices, while February and May are more likely to see falling prices [157] 3.7 Cotton Options Market Analysis and Operation Strategies - For cotton spot traders, it is recommended to use a combined options strategy for hedging: sell CF2605 - C - 14800, buy CF2605 - C - 13500, and sell CF2605 - P - 13200 [162] 3.8 Appendix - Related Stocks in the Cotton Industry - The report lists the stock codes, names, related products, initial prices, current prices, and annual price changes of upstream, middle - stream, and downstream companies in the cotton industry [164]