固收视角看配置系列二：3月大类资产怎么看？

Group 1: Macro Trading Themes - The uncertainty brought by tariff policies is expected to intensify, as tariffs have become an integral part of the Trump administration's policy framework, serving multiple purposes including fiscal revenue, manufacturing return, and international relations [1][16][21] - The current tariff policy, based on the 1974 Trade Act Section 122, imposes a 10% tariff on most goods, but its future direction remains complex, with potential legal challenges and limitations on duration and rates [2][23][24] - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is significant, with projections indicating a decrease in effective tariff rates and potential positive effects on GDP growth following the Supreme Court's ruling against previous tariffs [3][27][31] Group 2: AI Replacement Effects - The rapid development of AI technologies is causing significant disruptions across various sectors, leading to concerns about job displacement and economic downturns as companies increasingly replace human labor with AI [4][35][40] - The narrative of an "AI crisis" suggests a cycle where cost savings from AI lead to layoffs, reduced consumer spending, and further reliance on AI, potentially resulting in a recession driven by technological advancements [5][41][42] - Despite concerns, there are alternative pathways to mitigate negative impacts, including the creation of new job categories and the potential for AI to coexist with human workers, enhancing productivity rather than solely replacing jobs [41][42] Group 3: Asset Performance Review - In February 2026, global risk assets showed a significant shift from upward momentum to a period of consolidation, with notable performance disparities among equity markets, particularly with South Korea leading due to AI-related demand [7][43][45] - The bond market experienced a general decline in yields, with U.S. Treasury yields dropping significantly, influenced by tariff uncertainties and weaker GDP data [8][43] - Commodity markets displayed structural divergence, with gold prices rising sharply due to geopolitical tensions, while other metals like silver faced corrections after previous gains [8][43]