黑色商品日报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to experience narrow - range consolidation. The supply - demand data for rebar shows a neutral performance, with production rising from a low level, significant inventory accumulation, and increasing apparent demand. However, the current supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the single - side driving force is not strong [1]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The market is influenced by both supply and demand factors. The supply from Australia, Brazil and other countries shows different trends, and the demand is affected by environmental protection restrictions, resulting in a decline in molten iron production [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to move in a volatile manner. The supply of coking coal is in a loose state, and the demand from coking enterprises has limited growth. The cost support for coke is weakening, and the demand from steel mills is insufficient [1]. - The manganese - silicon and silicon - iron markets are also expected to be volatile. For manganese - silicon, the cost is the main driving factor, and there is pressure on the inventory. For silicon - iron, the cost provides certain support, and the inventory pressure is limited [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures contract 2605 closed at 3075 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.13%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 0.22 million lots in positions. The spot price rose slightly, and the trading volume increased slightly. The national rebar production increased by 8.21 tons week - on - week to 173.31 tons, and the inventory continued to accumulate significantly. The apparent demand increased by 17.69 tons week - on - week to 98.23 tons. The overall supply - demand data is neutral, and it is expected to move in a narrow range in the short term [1]. - Iron Ore: The main iron ore futures contract i2605 closed at 759 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.9%) from the previous trading day, with 440,000 lots in trading volume and a decrease of 27,000 lots in positions. The supply from Australia and Brazil fluctuated slightly, and the supply from other countries increased. The demand was affected by environmental protection restrictions, and the molten iron production decreased by 5.69 tons week - on - week to 227.59 tons. The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures contract 2605 closed at 1105.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton (0.77%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 16,540 lots in positions. The supply from major producing areas has basically returned to normal, and the demand from coking enterprises has limited growth. It is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term [1]. - Coke: The coke futures contract 2605 closed at 1676.5 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.27%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 268 lots in positions. The cost support for coke is weakening, and the demand from steel mills is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Manganese - Silicon: On Thursday, the manganese - silicon futures price weakened in a volatile manner, closing at 6092 yuan/ton, down 0.52% from the previous day, with a decrease of 8150 lots in positions to 435,800 lots. The cost is the main driving factor, and there is pressure on the inventory. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to cost and macro - level news [1][3]. - Silicon - Iron: On Thursday, the silicon - iron futures price strengthened in a volatile manner, closing at 5828 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day, with an increase of 742 lots in positions to 208,100 lots. The cost provides certain support, and the inventory pressure is limited. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to cost and macro - level news [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides detailed data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron. For example, the 5 - 10 spread of rebar is - 29.0, with a change of 0.0 compared to the previous day [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - 3.3.1 Main Contract Prices: It includes price trend charts of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron from 2021 to 2026 [6][7][9][13]. - 3.3.2 Main Contract Basis: It presents basis trend charts of main contracts of various black commodities from 2021 to 2026 [16][17][20][22]. - 3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: It shows the spread trend charts of different inter - period contracts of various black commodities from 2021 to 2026 [25][26][27][32][33][35][37]. - 3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads: It includes the spread trend charts of different inter - variety contracts of various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [38][39][40][41]. - 3.3.5 Rebar Profits: It provides profit trend charts of rebar main contracts, including the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2021 to 2026 [43][44][46]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with detailed work experience and professional qualifications introduced for each member [48][49].