农产品日报（2026 年3 月6日）-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The market sentiment is bullish, with the futures price leading the increase and the spot price following. The overall supply - demand is tight, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Traders are advised to set dynamic stop - profits and use put options for protection [1]. - Soybean Meal: The futures follow the external market, while the spot market is weak due to ample supply. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions, and the development of the Middle East situation should be monitored [1]. - Oils: Affected by the rising crude oil price, the domestic oil market is strong, and the strategy is to participate in short - term long positions, with attention to the Middle East situation [1]. - Eggs: The supply is sufficient, the demand has returned to normal, and the price has corrected. The market is expected to fluctuate in a range, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - Pigs: The fundamental situation remains weak, and the futures price is running weakly. However, the downward space is narrowing, and the data of the production capacity and market sentiment should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Corn: On Thursday, the position of the 2605 contract increased, and the futures price rebounded. The Northeast spot price is strong, and deep - processing plants are still raising purchase prices. The North China price is also strong, with most enterprises raising prices by 10 - 30 yuan/ton, but the enthusiasm of grass - roots grain depots to follow the price increase is low. The sales area price is stable, and the overall supply - demand is tight [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans rose, following the increase in crude oil. The US soybean weekly export sales decreased by 6% compared with the previous week. In Argentina, the rainfall improved the growth of soybeans, and the expected output is 48.5 million tons. The domestic futures follow the external market, while the spot is weak [1]. - Oils: On Thursday, BMD palm oil rose to a one - month high. The Canadian rapeseed planting area is expected to increase by 1% year - on - year but lower than expected. The domestic oils are strong, with palm oil stronger than soybean oil and rapeseed oil [1]. - Eggs: On Wednesday, the futures fluctuated and adjusted, and the spot price decreased. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has returned to normal after the price rebound. The fundamental situation is bearish, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [2]. - Pigs: On Wednesday, the futures fluctuated at a low level, and the spot price was generally stable with partial increases. The northern market has resistance to price decline, while the southern market is still actively selling. The fundamental situation is weak, but the downward space is narrowing [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Policy: The Politburo emphasizes the implementation of more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. From March 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, additional tariffs on Canadian products will be waived [3]. - International Events: On March 1, local time, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was assassinated. Trump said the Iran conflict is expected to last about four weeks. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard issued a warning about oil and gas facilities [3][4]. - Shipping: Maersk plans to divert ships due to the Middle East situation and will suspend the passage of ships through the Suez Canal [4]. - Commodity Supply and Demand: India plans to cut power coal imports by at least 30%. The inventory of imported cotton in ports increased by 0.75% week - on - week. OPEC+ decided to resume production increase [4]. - Industry Data: The national alumina operating rate decreased by 1.21 percentage points to 77.17%. Saudi Arabia may raise the official selling price of crude oil to Asia in April [5][6]. - Crude Oil Price: The US and Brent crude oil futures prices rose, and the market factored in an 8 - 10 US dollars war risk premium [6]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report provides charts of 5 - 9 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [8][10][11][14]. - Contract Basis: The report provides charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [17][20][22][28].