国信期货纸浆周报：低位震荡，等待需求企稳-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 continued the low - level oscillation pattern. The weak downstream demand restricted the upward movement of the market. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, and it is necessary to observe the de - stocking situation. The cost side of pulp prices still has some support. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize before considering light - position trial long positions [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 continued the low - level oscillation pattern. The weak downstream demand restricted the upward movement of the market [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Pulp Market Price: As of March 5, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,253 yuan/ton, down 0.79% from the previous week, turning from an increase to a decrease; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,572 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous week, also turning from an increase to a decrease [12] - Accumulated Pulp Imports from January to December: In December 2025, China imported 3.113 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.7994 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 578.03 US dollars/ton. From January to December, the accumulated import volume and value increased by 4.9% and - 2.4% respectively compared with the same period last year [16] - Port Inventory Situation: As of March 5, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.3887 million tons, a 1.43% increase from the previous week, with the growth rate narrowing by 11.87 percentage points [20] - European Port Pulp Inventory in January: In January 2026, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 14.72% month - on - month and 11.34% compared with January 2025. The port inventories in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain decreased by 8.21%, 7.15%, 7.55%, 22.47%, and 47.16% respectively month - on - month [23] - Downstream Pulp Species Operating Rate: Waste paper pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. As of March 5, the operating load rate of double - copper paper increased by 9.89 percentage points from the previous week; the operating load rate of double - offset paper increased by 6.94 percentage points from the previous week; the operating load rate of white cardboard decreased by 3.42 percentage points from the previous week; the operating load rate of household paper increased by 15.50 percentage points from the previous week. After the Spring Festival, downstream paper enterprises resumed work, and the weekly operating rate of pulp species generally increased [30] 3.3 Future Outlook - The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, and it is necessary to observe the de - stocking situation. The operating rate of pulp species generally increased week - on - week after the Spring Festival. The cost side of pulp prices still has some support. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize before considering light - position trial long positions [34]