白糖周报：偏强震荡，郑糖关注政策变化-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar showed a slightly stronger and upward - trending oscillation this week. Supported by external cost and undervaluation repair, along with a slowdown in supply at the end of the domestic sugar - making season and post - holiday replenishment demand, the sugar price maintained a strong oscillation. However, factors such as slow sugar sales in Yunnan, high industrial and commercial inventories, and industrial hedging funds limited the upward space. Policy expectations of stricter import control supported the sugar price. In the international market, the international sugar market was affected by macro - economic fluctuations, with geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increasing risk - aversion sentiment. The US dollar's high - level operation pressured commodities. The global sugar supply was abundant, and the sugar price had weak rebound momentum. In the short term, the international raw sugar continued the weak oscillation, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to Brazil's production policies and weather changes in major producing areas [56]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading [57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou sugar futures showed a strong oscillation with a weekly increase of 0.79%. ICE sugar futures oscillated at a low level with a weekly decline of 1.51% [11]. 3.1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - Not provided with specific analysis content, only data sources are given [14] 3.1.3 Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - Not provided with specific analysis content, only data sources are given [16] 3.1.4 Sugar Import Situation - In December, sugar imports were 580,000 tons, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar March contract price of 14.5 cents per pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4,019 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 5,090 yuan per ton; the in - quota import cost from Thailand was 4,078 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 5,166 yuan per ton [22]. 3.1.5 Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in January was about 4.19 million tons, an increase of 432,200 tons compared with the same period last year [25]. 3.1.6 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 17,170, an increase of 1,221 compared with last week. The number of warehouse receipts was 14,585, and the number of valid forecasts was 2,585 [33]. 3.1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of January, the cumulative crushing volume was 602 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.16%, and the sugar production was 40.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86% [37]. 3.1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern part of Brazil was 50.74%, compared with 48.14% in the same period last year [42]. 3.1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - In January, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.0175 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09% [47]. 3.1.10 International Main Producing Area Weather Conditions - There was abundant rainfall in Brazil's main producing areas, which was beneficial to sugarcane growth. There was almost no precipitation in India, which was beneficial to sugarcane pressing [53]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar maintained a strong oscillation. In the international market, the international raw sugar continued the weak oscillation in the short term, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to Brazil's production policies and weather changes in major producing areas. The operation suggestion is short - term trading [56][57]