国信期货苹果周报：优果率问题暂未解决，盘面刷新高点-20260306

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of high - quality apples is in short - supply, and there is a high probability that the market for different - quality apple supplies will continue to diverge. In March, the price of high - quality apples in the northwest region may continue to rise slightly, while the price in Shandong may be stable or slightly weak. The national apple prices may show a pattern of stronger in the west and weaker in the east. As cold - stored apples enter the middle and late stages of sales, the price gap between large and small apples may further widen. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [33]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The main apple futures contract AP2605 rose significantly, hitting a new high in this round of the upward market [8]. 2. Supply - Side Situation - As of March 5, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 4.7052 million tons, and the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 35.73%, 2.29 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Due to the decline in the excellent - fruit rate, the proportion of high - quality apples is low, and there is a supply gap [11]. 3. Demand - Side Situation - As of March 5, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio dropped by 1.82 percentage points this week (February 26 - March 4, 2026), and the inventory removal rate was 36.05%. Post - holiday shipments were mainly concentrated in the northwest production areas, while the shipment speed in Shandong was relatively stable [16]. - In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The overseas demand increased due to the Christmas and New Year's Day festivals. The first quarter is the peak export season for fresh apples, and the export volume is expected to remain at a high level [18]. - As of March 6, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The market was stable, and the number of buyers inspecting the goods increased slightly [29].