硅产业链：供需双弱博弈，期限分化下震荡运行：2026年工业硅月度报告-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - In March, the supply side will show a marginally loose but controllable pattern, with the core variable in Xinjiang and the resumption progress of large factories being the key contradiction. If the resumption is less than expected, the supply will remain in tight balance. The supply driver is generally neutral to weak [2]. - The demand side will show a pattern of "gradual recovery, rigid rebound, and limited incremental growth", relying on the release of rigid demand from downstream resumption. If the resumption is less than expected, the demand will remain weak, restricting the upward space of futures prices [2]. - In terms of valuation, the pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, inventory is at a relatively high level, and capital sentiment is cautious. In March, the valuation driver tends to fluctuate at a low level and recover moderately, with limited repair amplitude and difficult to break through the previous high [2]. Polysilicon - In March, on the supply side, production reduction efforts will narrow, output is expected to moderately rebound to 85,000 - 87,000 tons, and the supply pressure will increase. High inventory restricts the supply increment, and the supply recovery rhythm is moderate [4]. - The demand side in March relies on the release of rigid demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry chain. If the resumption is less than expected or inventory removal is slow, the demand will remain weak and difficult to boost prices effectively [5]. - In terms of valuation, the basis valuation in March will maintain a high level of futures - spot discount, and there is still downward pressure in the short term. The overall situation in March is "marginally loose supply, slowly recovering demand, and low - pressured valuation", with a short - term bearish trend [5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 2026 February Industrial Silicon Market Review - In February, the industrial silicon market showed a pattern of weak demand, with futures prices oscillating downward to find new lows and the discount space widening. Affected by the Spring Festival, the market was light before the festival, stagnant during the festival, and tentative after the festival. The price center of gravity moved down significantly compared with the end of January. The overall supply pressure was still large, and the inventory pressure remained [13]. Narrowing of Basis Fluctuation Range and Strengthening of Bottom - Building Support - In February, the industrial silicon basis mainly showed a discount pattern, with the spread widening before the festival and narrowing after the festival. The futures market was more flexible due to capital and supply - demand expectations, while the spot market was weak, resulting in a phased differentiation of futures and spot price trends [17]. Marginal Contraction of Costs and Continuous Pressure on Profit Margins - In terms of electricity prices, in February, the electricity prices in each production area were generally stable. Only in the southwest production area, the electricity price was slightly higher due to seasonal factors of hydropower. Other raw materials such as silica, silicon coal, and carbonaceous reducing agents also remained stable in price, making the production cost have no obvious downward space [24][26]. - The average production cost of the industrial silicon industry in February was in the range of 8,500 - 8,800 yuan/ton. The average profit of enterprises decreased significantly compared with January. Large - scale enterprises still had a small profit, while some small and medium - sized enterprises had a small loss [32]. Supply Side: Continued Marginally Loose Supply Pattern, Focus on Resumption of Large Factories - In February 2026, the industrial silicon output was expected to decrease by about 60,000 tons month - on - month, to 254,600 tons, a month - on - month decline of more than 35%. Due to the reduction plans of leading enterprises in Xinjiang and the Spring Festival holiday, the production reduction trend continued. The resumption progress after the festival was uncertain [35]. - In Xinjiang, most enterprises implemented production reduction plans, and the resumption time after the festival was not clear. In the southwest, enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan were mostly in low - load production or shutdown, and some planned to resume production after March [36]. Demand Side: Slow Recovery of Resumption, Rigid Demand Rebound but Limited Increment, and Obvious High - Inventory Restriction Polysilicon - In February 2026, the polysilicon market continued the weak pattern of weak supply and demand, futures - spot differentiation, and difficult inventory removal. The price center of gravity moved down and then oscillated. The core contradiction was the game between active production reduction on the supply side and overall weak demand [42]. - In terms of supply, in February, the polysilicon industry's overall开工 rate was 29.11%, with a month - on - month decrease of 14.51%. The domestic output was expected to be 82,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.3% and a year - on - year decrease of about 10%. Different regions had different production reduction situations [44]. - In terms of demand, in February, the domestic photovoltaic installation was in the off - season, and the new installation was less than 5GW, with a significant decline year - on - year and month - on - month. Overseas demand was also weak, and the overall demand was expected to decline by 21.05% month - on - month, further increasing the inventory [49]. Silicone - In terms of price, as of the end of January, the mainstream prices of various silicone products were stable with an upward trend, and the price - holding intention was strong [63]. - In terms of supply, in February, the silicone industry implemented a 30% production reduction, and the overall开工 rate was about 55%. From March to May, the emission reduction ratio will be increased to 35% [66]. - In terms of demand, in February, the silicone demand showed a structural recovery, mainly driven by the strong export of photovoltaic and emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and electronics AI. In March, if the real estate demand recovery and export were not as expected, the market would still oscillate [68]. Aluminum Alloy - In terms of price, in February 2026, the prices of aluminum alloy and upstream aluminum ingots showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with different increases among varieties. The price was affected by multiple factors, and the downstream price transmission efficiency gradually weakened [71]. - In terms of supply, in February, the supply of primary aluminum was limited by the production capacity ceiling, and the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was restricted by raw materials and low开工 rate. In March, the supply of aluminum alloy ingots will shift from phased looseness to stable convergence [72]. - In terms of demand, in February, the demand for aluminum alloy ingots was in a weak recovery state after the festival, with only new energy and other fields showing relative resilience. In March, with the full resumption of downstream production, the demand will improve significantly [73]. Inventory and Import - Export: Inventory Accumulation in the Industry Chain and Weak Import - Export Performance Industrial Silicon Inventory - In February, the social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly, while the exchange warehouse receipts increased, showing a "structural differentiation" of futures - spot inventory. The reasons for inventory removal were the active purchase by downstream and traders due to low futures prices and the limited inventory supplement on the supply side, but the inventory removal amplitude was small [79]. Polysilicon Inventory - By the end of February, the polysilicon social inventory had accumulated to a high level of 480,000 tons, and the inventory turnover days had extended to more than 45 days. High inventory was mainly due to the fact that the production reduction amplitude was less than the demand decline amplitude under the background of weak supply and demand, which restricted the industry's price recovery [81]. Industrial Silicon Import - Export - Exports were stable, and the main export destinations were Japan, India, etc. Imports decreased sharply throughout the year, mainly reflecting that domestic production capacity was sufficient and the dependence on overseas raw materials was significantly reduced [84]. Polysilicon Import - Export - Imports showed a pattern of "decreasing volume and increasing price", which may mean an increase in the demand for high - end semiconductor - grade silicon materials. Exports showed "simultaneous decline in volume and price", mainly due to the weak overseas photovoltaic market demand or inventory adjustment [88]. Market Outlook - Industrial silicon will maintain a weak oscillating pattern. On the supply side, the resumption progress of large factories in Xinjiang should be concerned. On the demand side, the resumption and procurement demand of the polysilicon, silicone, and aluminum alloy industries should be focused on. In the long - term, the high - prosperity of the photovoltaic industry will drive the demand for industrial silicon, but in the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to be completely resolved [91]. - Polysilicon futures in February showed a pattern of "rebound under pressure and weak oscillation". In March, the price may rebound in the first ten days but face strong resistance above 52,000 yuan/ton. In the middle and late ten days, the price is expected to fall back and oscillate in the range of 48,000 - 50,000 yuan/ton [92].