2026年全球经济和大类资产白皮书：穿越周期，洞见新机

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global economy is undergoing a paradigm shift from globalization to geopolitics, with geopolitical risks becoming a core variable in asset pricing. The global economy is at the end of the depression phase of the previous information technology cycle, and 2026 - 2027 is expected to be a global economic trough, followed by a new cycle centered on artificial intelligence and new energy [4]. - The world economic pattern is being reshaped, with the US - China game leading to the reorganization of the order. The US economy shows signs of stagflation and faces policy dilemmas, while the Chinese economy has both challenges and resilience. Other economies are also experiencing differentiation [4]. - The core driving forces include the technological revolution, energy transformation, and geopolitical games, which will have a profound impact on the global economy and asset prices [4]. - In 2026, different asset classes have different investment strategies, such as gold as a core asset, copper and aluminum as strategic assets, and attention to structural opportunities in various markets [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Historic Turn in the Context of a Century - Long Change - Paradigm Shift from Globalization to Geopolitics: The global political - economic pattern is shifting from globalization to geopolitics, with geopolitical risks becoming a key factor in asset pricing. Trump's potential radical trade policies are an extreme manifestation of this trend [17]. - Positioning from the Perspective of the Kondratieff Cycle: The global economy is at the end of the depression phase of the previous information technology cycle, expected to end in 2026. This will resonate with the bottom of the Kitchin inventory cycle, and 2026 - 2027 may be a significant global economic trough [18]. Chapter 2: Fission and Reconstruction of the Global Macroeconomy - World Economic Pattern and Order Reorganization: The "east - rising and west - falling" trend is non - linear. The US - China game will lead to the reorganization of the monetary system, trade rules, and international political order, and the global economy is moving towards "grouping" and "camp - forming" [23]. - US Economic Stagflation and Policy Dilemmas: The US economy shows signs of stagflation, with weakening growth momentum and stubborn inflation. The government's debt has exceeded $38 trillion, and the Fed is in a dilemma between cutting interest rates and controlling inflation [24][27]. - China's Economic "New Normal": China's economy faces challenges such as population aging, high leverage, and real - estate adjustment, but also shows resilience in exports and the development of new - quality productivity. In 2026, active fiscal policies and real - estate stabilization policies will support the economy [49]. - Differentiation and Risks of Other Major Economies: Europe's manufacturing PMI is contracting, facing recession risks; Japan's interest - rate hike cycle is fragile, which may trigger a Japanese debt crisis; India's economic growth shows signs of slowing down [71][74][75]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Core Driving Forces: Technology, Energy, and Politics - New - Round Technological Revolution: The core driving force is "artificial intelligence + new energy + digital finance". The Juglar cycle is in an upward phase, spurring investment in high - tech industries. AI will reshape traditional industries and drive demand for underlying hardware [80]. - Energy Revolution and Reconstruction: The new - energy revolution is reshaping the global energy demand pattern, but resource nationalism is on the rise, increasing global mining costs. Localization policies distort global pricing [81]. - Great - Power Games and Geopolitics: The US - China game is a core variable, with a "fight - but - not - break" situation in areas such as technology decoupling and key - mineral control. Geopolitical conflicts in various regions bring uncertainties to the global market [89]. Chapter 4: 2026 Asset Allocation Strategies - Precious Metals: Gold is a "ballast stone" due to central - bank purchases, safe - haven demand, and interest - rate cuts. Silver has strong industrial demand and is suitable for tactical allocation [91]. - Industrial Metals: Copper is a core strategic asset. Supply is limited, while demand from the new - energy revolution is strong, making copper prices likely to rise [99]. - Energy and Chemicals: Global crude - oil demand growth is slowing, but supply is fragile. Geopolitical events drive short - term price fluctuations, and investors should focus on structural opportunities [103]. - Equity Markets: Global stock markets face complex situations. US stocks face risks of AI bubbles and profit pressure, while A - shares and Hong Kong stocks have structural opportunities [104]. - Fixed - Income Markets: US Treasury yields may steepen, with limited downward space for long - term yields. Chinese bonds have downward space for yields and are suitable for risk - aversion [109]. - Foreign - Exchange Markets: The US dollar may show a volatile pattern, and the RMB is expected to remain stable within the range of 6.8 - 7.2 [114]. Chapter 5: Risk Warnings and Summary Outlook - 2026 Investment Strategy Summary: In 2026, the market will be highly volatile and uncertain, with structural opportunities. The core idea of asset allocation is to focus on defense, seize opportunities, and emphasize structure. Strategic allocation of gold, core offensive in strategic metals, and attention to China's new - quality productivity direction [125].