有色商品日报（2026 年 3 月 6 日）-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly and closed slightly lower, with the spot import of refined copper in China remaining at a loss. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, and the US dollar has been boosted by risk - aversion sentiment, suppressing copper prices. There is a risk of a second - round correction due to continuous inventory accumulation. However, when the financial market has priced in risks and inventory accumulation ends, the market may enter a stage of rising risk appetite. The strategy is to maintain a layout at low prices [1]. Aluminum - The price of alumina futures AO2605 closed at 2790 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The price of Shanghai aluminum AL2604 closed at 24435 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.88%. The price of aluminum alloy AD2604 also declined. The price of alumina spot rebounded, and the aluminum ingot spot discount narrowed. The suspension of production in the Middle East has increased supply concerns, and domestic inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The price of alumina is expected to be weakly stable [1][2]. Nickel - LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices both declined. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The nickel ore price and nickel - iron price are rising, providing cost support. The production of stainless steel and ternary precursors is increasing, and there is a demand for rigid restocking. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of light - position trial long near the cost line and monitor the inventory of primary nickel [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Research Views - Copper: Overnight, copper prices fluctuated weakly. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, and the US dollar has risen, suppressing copper prices. The inventory has increased, and there is a risk of a second - round correction. However, there may be an opportunity when the market sentiment improves [1]. - Aluminum: The prices of alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy futures all showed a weak trend. The price of alumina spot rebounded, and the aluminum ingot spot discount narrowed. The suspension of production in the Middle East has increased supply concerns, and domestic inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [1][2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices declined. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The nickel ore and nickel - iron prices are rising, providing cost support. The production of stainless steel and ternary precursors is increasing, and there is demand for restocking [3][4]. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the price of scrap copper increased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipts increased, and the social inventory increased [5]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead increased, and the price of lead concentrate also increased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory increased [5]. - Aluminum: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium increased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipts increased, and the social inventory increased [6]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the price of imported nickel decreased. The LME inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased, and the social inventory increased [6]. - Zinc: The main settlement price increased, and the spot price increased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, the SHFE inventory increased, and the social inventory increased [8]. - Tin: The main settlement price increased, and the spot price decreased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory increased [8]. Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [10][11][12][14]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [16][17][18][21][23][24]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [25][26][27][28][29][30]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [31][32][33][34][35][36]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [37][38][39][40][41][42]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [44][45][46][47][48][49]. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. They have rich experience in the non - ferrous metal industry, have won many awards, and have in - depth research in different fields of non - ferrous metals [52][53].