蛋白粕周报：原油走高推动，美豆不断上行-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the CBOT soybean market continued to rise, driven by the continuous increase in international crude oil prices and the new highs of US soybean oil. The domestic Dalian soybean meal market also rose significantly. The cost increase brought by the rise of US soybeans and the fall of the RMB offset the decline of the Brazilian premium, and the increase of Dalian soybean meal was less than that of the external market. The market showed a strong trend [6]. - The export inspection volume of US soybeans increased compared with the previous week. The export inspection volume of US soybeans to China also increased, and the proportion of the week's total export inspection volume reached 64.58% [10]. - The rainfall in most parts of Brazil was moderate to extremely heavy, while the southern part was relatively dry. The drought in northern Argentina was alleviated by rainfall, but the central and southern parts were still facing drought pressure, which had an impact on the growth of soybeans and corn [20]. - The estimated export volume of Brazilian soybeans in March 2026 is 16.09 million tons, an increase of 2.3% compared with the same period in 2025. However, multiple Brazilian consulting agencies have lowered their forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production, mainly due to the adverse weather in Rio Grande do Sul [29]. - The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans improved significantly this week. The inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports is about 8.0568 million tons, and the theoretical number of days for port - imported soybean inventory to be crushed is 32 days [44]. - Next week, the USDA report will be released. The market should focus on the export, inventory of US soybeans, and the adjustment space of South American soybean production. The price of US soybeans will continue to be strong, but if the Middle - East situation eases, the CBOT soybean may return to its fundamentals. The domestic soybean meal market is running strongly, but attention should be paid to the pressure of hedging positions and the movement of funds [79]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis - Market Trend: This week, the CBOT soybean market continued to rise, and the domestic Dalian soybean meal market also rose significantly. The cost increase brought by the rise of US soybeans and the fall of the RMB offset the decline of the Brazilian premium, and the increase of Dalian soybean meal was less than that of the external market. On Friday, Dalian soybean meal increased in position and price, and the market was worried that the arrival of Brazilian soybeans in March might be less than expected and about the quality of Brazilian soybeans, so Dalian soybean meal and the No. 2 yellow soybean contract rose together [6]. - US Market - US Soybean Export Situation: As of the week of February 26, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 11.3758 million tons, an increase from the previous week. The export inspection volume of US soybeans to China also increased, and the proportion of the week's total export inspection volume reached 64.58% [10]. - South American Market - Brazil and Argentina: In Brazil, most areas had moderate to extremely heavy rainfall, while the southern part was relatively dry. The drought in northern Argentina was alleviated by rainfall, but the central and southern parts were still facing drought pressure, which had an impact on the growth of soybeans and corn [20]. - Domestic and International Oilseed Markets: The estimated export volume of Brazilian soybeans in March 2026 is 16.09 million tons, an increase of 2.3% compared with the same period in 2025. Multiple Brazilian consulting agencies have lowered their forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production, mainly due to the adverse weather in Rio Grande do Sul. The 2025/26 soybean production forecast in Argentina remains unchanged at 48 million tons, a 5% decrease from the 2024/25 season. The Australian 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to reach 7.7 million tons, a 20% increase from the previous year [29][30][31]. - Soybean - South American Soybean Sowing and Harvesting Progress: The soybean sowing progress in Argentina is close to completion, and the overall progress is 99.5%. The Brazilian soybean harvesting progress is about 41.7%, lower than the same period last year but higher than the five - year average [35][37]. - Soybean - Port Inventory and Crushing Profit: The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans improved significantly this week. The inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports is about 8.0568 million tons, and the theoretical number of days for port - imported soybean inventory to be crushed is 32 days. It is expected that the theoretical inventory of port soybeans will be 5.04 million tons next weekend [44]. - Soybean - Import Cost and Internal - External Price Difference: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans arriving in May (with additional tariffs) is 4,582 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans arriving in May is 3,792 yuan/ton. The Brazilian premium declined slightly this week [48]. - Soybean Meal - Soybean Operating Rate and Soybean Meal Inventory: As of the end of the 9th week (February 28), the soybean operating rate of domestic main soybean oil mills increased compared with the previous week, but it was still at a very low level. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 710,400 tons, a decrease of 150,500 tons from the previous week, a 17.48% month - on - month decrease [52]. - Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal - Weekly Apparent Consumption: The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 9th week was 869,900 tons, compared with 95,000 tons in the same period last week [54]. - Soybean Meal - Basis Analysis: The domestic soybean meal spot was relatively weak this week, and the soybean meal basis declined significantly [57]. - Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed Operating Rate and Crushing Volume: As of the end of the 9th week (February 28), the operating rate of domestic main oil mills' imported rapeseed increased compared with the previous week, but it was still almost at a standstill. The inventory of imported rapeseed meal for crushing was 6,500 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous week, an 8.33% month - on - month increase [59]. - Rapeseed Meal - Basis Analysis: There is no specific content about the basis analysis of rapeseed meal in the text. - Arbitrage Relationship between Oil and Oilseed Varieties: This week, the oil - meal ratio of beans increased slightly, the oil - meal ratio of rapeseed main contracts continued to recover, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal main contracts declined slightly [65]. - Arbitrage Relationship of Protein Meal Inter - Month Spread: This week, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased slightly [70]. 3.2 Future Market Outlook - Seasonal Analysis: There are seasonal index charts of US soybeans, US soybean meal, Dalian soybean meal, and live pigs, but no specific analysis content is provided [73][76]. - Next Week's Market Outlook: - Technical Level: For the main contracts, the short - term and medium - term indicators of soybean meal are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled. The short - term indicators of rapeseed meal are bullish, the medium - term indicators are entangled, and the long - term indicators are bearish [78]. - Fundamentals: In the international market, the USDA report will be released next week. The market should focus on the export, inventory of US soybeans, and the adjustment space of South American soybean production. The price of US soybeans will continue to be strong, but if the Middle - East situation eases, the CBOT soybean may return to its fundamentals. In the domestic market, the domestic soybean meal market is in a situation of weak spot and strong futures. The Dalian soybean meal market is running strongly due to the cost drive of the continuous rise of US soybeans and the uncertainty of the arrival of Brazilian soybeans in the future. As the price rises, the pressure of hedging positions will gradually appear. Attention should be paid to the position. Once the funds leave the market, long positions should be reduced. It is recommended to operate quickly and take profits in time [79].