瑞达期货宏观市场周报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices declined collectively this week, with the STAR 50 being the weakest, falling over 4%. The four stock - index futures also dropped collectively, and small - and medium - cap stocks were weaker than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The US - Israel attack on Iran at the weekend caused a global stock - market shock, but the A - share market showed a relatively independent trend on Monday. Subsequently, due to rising oil prices, the A - share market weakened significantly on Tuesday and Wednesday. After the Two Sessions, the market focus shifted back to domestic issues, and the positive arrangements in the government work report for 2026 drove the stock market to rebound. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - The government bond futures strengthened collectively this week. The 2026 government work report did not show obvious policy signals beyond expectations. The expansion speed of broad fiscal expenditure weakened marginally, and the supply pressure of government bonds was generally controllable. The monetary policy will still mainly rely on structural tools, and the use of aggregate tools will be cautious. The current fundamental situation is still in the "weak recovery" stage, which provides bottom support for the bond market. It is expected that the subsequent interest rates will maintain a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations [6]. - The re - inflation expectation suppressed the precious - metal prices, while the unresolved and expanding US - Iran conflict continued to drive up oil prices. The commodity index is expected to show a relatively strong trend. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - The rising oil price pushed up the inflation expectation, and the hawkish policy expectation led to a decline in the interest - rate cut expectation. The inflow of market risk - aversion funds provided support for the US dollar. Affected by the strong US dollar and the widening US - Europe interest - rate spread, the euro and the yen were under pressure this week. It is recommended to observe cautiously [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - Stocks: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index fell 1.07%, and the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Stock - Index Futures dropped 1.32%. A - share major indices declined collectively, with the STAR 50 falling over 4%. The four stock - index futures also declined, and small - and medium - cap stocks were weaker than large - cap blue - chip stocks. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - Bonds: The yield of the 10 - year government bond due decreased by 0.22%, and the weekly change was - 0.39BP. The main 10 - year government bond futures rose 0.13%. Government bond futures strengthened collectively, and the 2026 government work report did not have significant policy surprises. The fundamental situation is in the "weak recovery" stage, and interest rates are expected to range - bound. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations [6]. - Commodities: The Wind Commodity Index dropped 5.75%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose 3.81%. The re - inflation expectation affected precious - metal prices, and the US - Iran conflict drove up oil prices. The commodity index is expected to be relatively strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - Foreign Exchange: The euro against the US dollar fell 1.75%, and the euro against the US dollar 2603 contract dropped 1.76%. Rising oil prices and hawkish policy expectations affected the exchange - rate, and the euro and the yen were under pressure. It is recommended to observe cautiously [6] 3.2 Important News and Events - China - US and China - Germany Economic and Trade: The Chinese and US sides will maintain communication through the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism. China and Germany reached more than ten business agreements in the economic and trade field. China and Germany will strengthen communication and cooperation under the framework of the China - Germany High - Level Financial Dialogue [14]. - Shanghai Real - Estate Policy: Shanghai issued the "Seven Measures in Shanghai", which mainly adjusted and reduced the purchase - restriction policy, increased the maximum amount of provident - fund family loans, and exempted property tax for some home purchases [14]. - International Tensions: The US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran on February 28. Iran counter - attacked and claimed to have hit multiple US military targets in the Middle East. The US may impose a 15% global tariff soon [15]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - China: The official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0, the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, and the composite PMI was 49.5. The manufacturing industry was affected by the Spring Festival, and the non - manufacturing industry was boosted by the service industry. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 136.34 billion yuan this week [12][13][18]. - US: The US ISM manufacturing PMI data was stronger than expected, the new - order index was resilient, and the inflation sub - item increased significantly. The ADP employment increase in February exceeded market expectations. The US 12 - month factory - order month - on - month rate was - 0.7%, and the initial jobless claims for the week ending February 21 were 2.12 million [11][16]. - EU: The euro - zone's January unemployment rate dropped to 6.1%, the February CPI was up 1.9% year - on - year, and the January CPI annual rate was 1.7%. The euro - zone's February industrial sentiment index was - 7.1 [11][16]. - Germany: Germany's fourth - quarter unadjusted GDP annual rate was 0.6%, and the January seasonally - adjusted industrial output month - on - month rate is to be released on March 9 [16][76]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - March 9: China's February CPI and PPI annual rates, Germany's January seasonally - adjusted industrial output month - on - month rate, and the US February New York Fed's one - year inflation expectation [76]. - March 10: Germany's January seasonally - adjusted trade balance, and France's January trade balance [76]. - March 11: Germany's February CPI month - on - month final value, the US February unadjusted CPI and core CPI annual rates [76]. - March 13: The UK's January three - month GDP month - on - month rate, January manufacturing output month - on - month rate, France's February CPI month - on - month final value, the euro - zone's January industrial output month - on - month rate, the US January core PCE price index annual rate, the fourth - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate revised value, and the January durable - goods order month - on - month rate [76].