铜产业链周度数据报告：元宵节后验证金三银四，电解铜仍可关注回调后的价值机会-20260306

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The biggest fundamental contradiction in the electrolytic copper market is the reduced supply growth rate and increased mining and refining costs after the global copper mines enter the depletion stage. The general strategy for electrolytic copper is to go long after a pullback. [6] - Before Trump's mid - term election in November, geopolitical issues and interference policies in Sino - US trade need to be monitored. Due to its financial attributes, copper is the best hedging variety after gold and silver. It is advisable to buy on dips after the price stabilizes and avoid chasing high before breaking through the 105,000 level. Also, basis trading can be attempted after the resumption of work accelerates after the Lantern Festival. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Report Summary - Macroeconomic Factors: Before Trump's mid - term election, geopolitical instability factors will not end with Iran. The conflict between the US and Iran in the Middle East has no direct impact on the copper fundamentals, but the financial attributes of copper have attracted the attention of hedging funds. The uncertainty of macro - factors will provide bottom support for copper prices. [4] - Copper Concentrate: After the festival, trading has not recovered actively, and the TC price continues to decline. As of March 2, the TC quote remained at -$51, and the market rumor is that the TC quote for April shipment is -$55, indicating that the tight supply of copper concentrate has not eased. [4] - Electrolytic Copper: The copper price has pulled up after a retracement, but there is pressure on spot sales, and the discount has deepened. In 2026, the copper price has fluctuated between 100,000 - 105,000. As downstream production has not fully recovered, both social inventory and bonded area inventory have increased. [4] - Downstream Demand: It will take time for downstream demand to fully recover. After the Lantern Festival, the "Golden March and Silver April" demand peak will be verified. High copper prices have made downstream processing enterprises and end - users cautious in purchasing. Orders in the construction and home appliance industries are flat, while those in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic fields are relatively stable, but they cannot reverse the overall weak demand. [5] 3.2 Electrolytic Copper Market Price - Upstream Market Price: The TC price remains at a low level. The market rumor is that the TC quote for April shipment of copper concentrate is -$55, and the tight supply situation has not improved. [4] - Futures and Spot Market Price: The expectation of interest rate cuts has pushed up the premium of warehouse receipts. [15] - Overseas Position Data: The speculative atmosphere overseas has significantly increased. [22] 3.3 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory - Upstream Supply: The supply - side growth rate is limited. [30] - Production and Inventory: The total production and operating rate of electrolytic copper, as well as its production cost, profit, and inventory data are presented. [35][37][39] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data and Downstream Consumption - US Dollar Index and US Treasury Yield: After non - farm payroll data, the US dollar has remained unexpectedly strong. [41] - US Economic Data: The unexpected non - farm payroll data in August has further increased the expectation of interest rate cuts. Indicators such as employment, market confidence, retail sales, and inventory are presented. [50] - Chinese Economic Data: In July, the new loans turned negative, and the PMI is slightly above the boom - bust line. Indicators such as M1, M2, social financing scale, and consumer retail sales are presented. [62][69] - Chinese Copper Downstream Consumption Data: The power grid and new energy sectors support the demand for copper. Data on electrolytic copper demand, terminal production growth rate, and fixed - asset investment growth rate are provided. [76]