3月信用债策略月报：稳中求进，维持惯性-20260306

Core Insights - The current credit bond market does not require profit-taking, with a focus on structural opportunities, suggesting that credit bonds are more favorable than interest rate bonds, and urban investment bonds are preferred over perpetual bonds [1][3][19] - The strategy of "asset scarcity" remains unchanged, favoring a downward strategy in credit bonds, with recommendations to continue focusing on short to medium-term durations in March [1][3][19] - Given the absolute low level of yield spreads, a steady approach is advisable, with a suggestion to control duration, ideally around 3 years [1][3][19] March Credit Bond Outlook - The market has shown a continuation of the bullish trend, with credit bond yields declining, approaching the lows seen in July 2025. The market faces uncertainty on whether it will break downward or return to a range-bound movement [1][16] - Historical data indicates a high success rate for bullish positions in March, with an average decline of 4.27 basis points for 10-year government bonds in March over the past decade, excluding the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in March 2022 [1][16] - Factors contributing to the seasonal characteristics in March include increased liquidity post-Spring Festival, reduced policy uncertainty following the Two Sessions, and the initiation of reserve-style allocations by wealth management and insurance funds [1][16] Institutional Behavior - Institutions typically increase their allocation to credit bonds in March, with net buying data indicating that insurance, wealth management, and other products are likely to boost their credit bond allocations [2][8] - Fund allocations to credit bonds are influenced by the liability side, with marginal changes expected in the first quarter of 2026. However, the opening of amortized bond funds in March is anticipated to reach nearly 110 billion yuan, indicating potential demand for credit bonds with maturities of 1 year and over 5 years [2][8] Investment Opportunities - Mainstream institutions can explore yield enhancement within the 2%-2.5% range. As of March 4, 2026, 55%-60% of urban investment bonds and 60%-65% of industrial bonds yield below 2% [4][20] - The banking sector is experiencing a widening gap between deposit and loan growth, with a historical high of 3.78 percentage points in January 2026, indicating a structural asset scarcity that may keep funding rates low and enhance the certainty of short-term credit bonds [4][20] Secondary Market Performance - In February, credit bond yields generally declined, with short-end strategies performing well. The credit spread dynamics showed divergence, suggesting that further comprehensive declines may require effective downward breakthroughs in interest rates [8][19] - The liquidity of individual bonds has seen a slight decrease, but trading sentiment remains positive, with low-quality issuers facing unfavorable trading conditions due to either reluctance to sell or reduced buying activity [8][19] Primary Market Dynamics - February saw a significant contraction in credit bond issuance and net financing, with issuance down 51% month-on-month and 26% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of the Spring Festival and fewer working days [9][19] - The subscription enthusiasm for credit bonds in the primary market has slightly increased, remaining at a historical average level, with urban investment bonds maintaining the highest subscription interest [9][19]