2026年焦煤焦炭期货白皮书：焦煤焦炭在能源安全的框架里弱势振荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Under the background of "dual carbon", China's crude steel output has declined for five consecutive years, but the coal - coking industry is still in the capacity release period. The domestic coal - coking - steel industry chain shows "two highs and two lows", with record - high domestic raw coal output, second - highest imported coal volume, and five - year lows in downstream steel demand and year - on - year decline in thermal power demand. In 2025, China's raw coal output reached a record high of 4.85 billion tons, and coke output reached a record high of 504 million tons, while crude steel output dropped to a five - year low of 961 million tons and pig iron output to 836 million tons. The entire industry chain has limited profits, and the domestic coal industry is prone to fall into a prisoner's dilemma. Breaking this negative cycle requires domestic policy - guided production cuts or export - country policy - led volume reduction to maintain relatively stable prices within a range. Considering China's energy security, coal is the only reliable non - renewable fossil energy source, resulting in the market regarding the range of 610 - 830 yuan for the thermal coal price index as the policy - controlled range in 2025 [3][315]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Coal - Coking Industry Chain Structure Diagram - Presents the coal - coking industry chain structure [18] Part 2: Introduction to Coking Coal and Coke Futures Contracts Coking Coal Futures Contracts and Delivery Systems - For contracts after JM2701: Trading unit is 60 tons/hand; trading code is JM; listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The exchange can adjust price limits and trading margin standards according to market conditions. It has night trading from 21:00 - 23:00 [20][21][22] - For contracts before JM2701: Similar trading parameters, but the delivery quality standard is F/DCE JM003 - 2022 [45][46] Coke Futures Contracts and Delivery Systems - For contracts starting from J2604: Trading unit is 100 tons/hand; trading code is J; listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. It has night trading from 21:00 - 23:00. The delivery quality standard is F/DCE J003 - 2024 [62][63][64] - For contracts starting from J2201: Similar trading parameters, but the delivery quality standard is F/DCE J001 - 2021 [76][77][79] Coking Coal Futures Option Contracts and Delivery Systems - Contract标的物: Coking coal futures contracts; contract types include call and put options. The trading unit is 1 hand (60 tons) of coking coal futures contracts; trading code for call options is JM - contract month - C - strike price, and for put options is JM - contract month - P - strike price. It is listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange [93][94] Part 3: Long - term and 2025 Market Summary of Coal - Coking Spot and Futures Long - term and 2025 Trends of the Coal - Coking Market - Coking coal spot market: Since the supply - side structural reform in 2016, it can be divided into two stages. From 2016 - 2022, prices rebounded, fluctuated in a stable range, and then soared due to supply constraints. From 2023 to now, prices have been under continuous downward pressure due to "double - high" supply and "double - weak" demand. In 2025, it showed a V - shaped reversal. The first half - year decline was due to weak supply and demand, and the second - half reversal was due to policy - guided supply reduction and anti - involution phased restocking [98][100][101] - Coke spot market: Since the 2016 supply reform, it has shown four stages. In 2025, coke prices followed coking coal prices in a V - shaped reversal but weakened again at the end of the year, with 15 rounds of price cuts and 14 rounds of price increases throughout the year [107][110] Long - term and 2025 Trends of Coal - Coking Futures - Coking coal futures: Since its listing in 2013, it has shown cyclical fluctuations. In 2025, the main contract hit a 10 - year low and then rebounded under policy stimulus, oscillating weakly in the range of 1000 - 1300 yuan/ton [113][115][116] - Coke futures: Since its listing in 2011, its price trend is highly correlated with the spot market. In 2025, it also showed a V - shaped reversal, oscillating in the range of 1400 - 1800 yuan/ton [119][121] Trading Volume and Open Interest of Coking Coal and Coke Futures - In 2025, the open interest of coking coal futures contracts increased significantly, with obvious trading volume and open interest expansion during June - August. The annual trading volume was 258,419,214 hands, and the average daily open interest was 676,039 hands. The trading volume of coke futures increased in June - August but was limited by the unopened position limits. The annual trading volume was 6,906,613 hands, and the average daily open interest was 49,559 hands [129][131] Part 4: Analysis of China's Coal - Coking Industry Supply Pattern China's Coal Supply - In 2025, China's coal industry achieved phased goals such as a slight increase in coal consumption, continuous optimization of the coal consumption structure, a significant decrease in the million - ton mortality rate, and a 65% share of intelligent coal mines. The national raw coal output was 4.85 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The coal industry is still in the capacity release cycle, and production will remain high in the long run. In 2026, there is still room for capacity release in major coal - producing regions [132][136][145] China's Coal Imports - China's coal imports have been at a high level for a long time. In 2025, imports decreased but remained at the second - highest historical level. The import structure shows that imported thermal coal accounts for about 74%, and imported coking coal accounts for about 23%. The main importing countries include Indonesia, Russia, Australia, and Mongolia. Coking coal imports have remained high, with Mongolia and Russia being the main sources. Mongolia plans to increase coal exports to China to 100 million tons in 2026, with coking coal accounting for over 61 million tons [164][172][185] China's Coke Supply and Industrial Layout - The coking industry's capacity and profit have fluctuated significantly. Since the supply - side reform in 2016, the coking industry has followed the coal industry in a recovery. After continuous elimination of backward production capacity, the coking capacity increased in 2021 - 2023 but with a sharp decline in profit per ton of coke. In 2025, the coking capacity increased slightly, and the coke output reached a record high of 504 million tons. The coking industry is in the capacity release cycle, with the top ten coke - producing provinces accounting for over 77% of the total output [220][221][225] China's Coke Imports and Exports - China's coke exports have been around 7 - 9 million tons since 2016. In 2025, coke exports decreased, and imports increased, contributing to a loose domestic supply - demand situation [231][235] Part 5: Analysis of China's Coal - Coking Industry Demand Pattern - In 2025, China's cumulative crude steel production was 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; pig iron production was 836 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%; and steel production was 1.446 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The crude steel production has been decreasing for five consecutive years, and it is expected to remain at 960 - 950 million tons in 2026 [238][240] Part 6: Analysis of Coal - Coking Prices, Inventories, and Industry Profits Comparison of Coking Coal Prices in Shanxi - By comparing the prices of low - sulfur and medium - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi, it is found that the price difference between Anze low - sulfur coking coal and Jiexiu 1.3 medium - sulfur coking coal has remained around 200 yuan since 2023. In 2025, the price of different coking coal varieties in Shanxi showed a V - shaped reversal, with high - sulfur coking coal having a larger price increase amplitude from the lowest point than low - sulfur coking coal [247][249][250] Comparison of Mongolian Coking Coal Prices - In 2025, the average monthly price of Mongolian coking coal (Meng 5 raw coal and Meng 5 clean coal) fell below the previous lows [265] Comparison of Mongolian Coking Coal Inventories and Coking Coal Futures Prices - The coking coal inventory in the Ganqimaodu Port Customs Supervision Area is negatively correlated with the trend of coking coal futures [271] Relationship between Thermal Coal Price Trends and Coking Coal Futures - Since the coking coal 2304 contract was modified to be based on 1.3 medium - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi, thermal coal traders have participated in coking coal futures for trend hedging [276] Comparison of Profits in the Coal - Coking - Steel Industry Chain - Currently, coking enterprises have low bargaining power in the coal - coking - steel industry chain due to weak coking coal prices and the capacity release period of the coking industry. From 2016 - 2022, the three industries in the coal - coking - steel industry chain were profitable, but since 2022, the profit of coking enterprises has fluctuated around the break - even point, and the profit of the steel industry has shrunk significantly. In 2025, the profit of the steel industry improved but fell into monthly losses in December, while the profit of the coal industry recovered in the second half of the year [282] Comparison of Coal - Coking Industry Inventories - In 2025, coke inventory was positively correlated with coking profit. In the first half of the year, coke inventory was high due to falling coal prices, and then decreased as coal prices rose. In December, coke inventory increased again as steel mill profits shrank [286] Part 7: Coal - Coking Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, the total supply of carbon elements was 601.56 million tons, and the total demand was 605.78 million tons, with a supply - demand gap of - 4.22 million tons. In 2026, it is estimated that the total supply will be 609.56 million tons, and the total demand will be 600.87 million tons, with a supply - demand surplus of 8.68 million tons [287][288] Part 8: Industry or Enterprise Research and Outlook - The 2026 National Energy Work Conference summarized the energy work in 2025 and the "14th Five - Year Plan" and deployed key tasks for 2026. In 2025, the energy sector showed strong resilience, with achievements in energy security, green and low - carbon transformation, technological innovation, market construction, and international cooperation [290][291][293] Part 9: Coking Coal Futures Hedging Cases - Case 1: A large coal - washing plant in Shanxi planned to purchase 30,000 tons of Mongolian coal for winter storage in October. By using coking coal futures for hedging, it not only avoided the price - fall risk during the purchase period but also made a profit of 5.4 million yuan [294][295] - Case 2: A large coal - producing enterprise in Shanxi sold short coking coal futures in 2026 when the market price of its main low - sulfur coking coal was rising but the real - world impact was limited. It made a profit of 424,600 yuan through hedging [297][298] Part 10: Futures Technical Analysis and Outlook Price Seasonal Analysis - Coking coal futures: The 05 contract has a higher probability of falling in December and January and rising in April; the 09 contract shows large fluctuations in April; the 01 contract has a higher probability of rising in September and falling back in October [300][302] - Coke futures: The 05 contract has a higher probability of falling in December and March; the 09 contract shows large fluctuations in April and a higher probability of falling in August; the 01 contract has a higher probability of rising in September and falling back in October [304][306] Technical Analysis and Outlook - Coking coal main continuous contract: After breaking through the long - term downward pressure level in August - September 2025, it failed to effectively break through above 1400 - 1500 yuan/ton under position - limit control. Currently, it is oscillating in the range of 1000 - 1300 yuan/ton and showing signs of weakening [308] - Coke main continuous contract: It has not broken through the long - term downward channel. If it cannot break below 1400 yuan/ton, it may rebound and冲击 the 1800 - yuan/ton top again; if it breaks below 1450 yuan/ton, it may start bottom - grinding towards the previous low of 1200 yuan/ton [314] Part 11: Summary and 2025 Operation Suggestions Summary - Under the "dual - carbon" background, the coal - coking industry is in the capacity release period while the crude steel output is decreasing. The industry is prone to a prisoner's dilemma, and policy - guided production cuts are needed to stabilize prices. It is expected that in 2025, the coking coal price will hover at a low level, with the coking coal futures price fluctuating around 800 - 1100 yuan/ton and the coke futures price fluctuating around 1200 - 1400 yuan/ton [315][316] Operation Suggestions - For coking coal, it is recommended to go short on rallies in 2025. The JM05 and JM09 contracts are more favorable for sellers. The cost of the JM2701 contract will increase by 110 - 140 yuan/ton. There is a possibility of an enlarged reverse spread between the 09 and 01 contracts. Coke futures still follow the coking coal futures due to unopened position limits, and the impact of the adjustment of the J2604 contract on delivery pricing and spread structure needs further observation [319]