国信期货油脂周报：中东局势持续发酵，国际油脂大幅走高-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International and domestic oil prices have risen significantly this week, and the upward trend of domestic oils will continue in the short - term before the Middle East situation eases and the upward trend of international crude oil and oils ends [6] - The market is concerned about the decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in February and the implementation of the US biodiesel policy. The Middle East situation is a key factor affecting the market. If it eases, international oils may return to their fundamentals and give back premiums; if it continues to ferment, international oils may remain strong. Domestic oils follow international trends, and attention should be paid to the changes in the positions of the three major vegetable oil contracts [62] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Oil Market Analysis 1.1 Oil Market Review - International oils rose significantly this week, with US soybean oil hitting new highs. The fermentation of the Middle East situation led to higher international crude oil prices, making biodiesel production profitable and increasing the demand for US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil also showed a catch - up rise. In the domestic market, rapeseed oil led the rise at the beginning of the week, followed by palm oil, and soybean oil rose moderately. Currently, the main contracts of rapeseed oil and soybean oil have broken through the upper limit of the previous shock range, and palm oil is catching up [6] 1.2 Recent International Oil Information - Indian palm oil imports in February increased to 844,000 tons, a 10.1% increase from January; soybean oil imports increased by 8.7% to 303,000 tons; sunflower oil imports decreased by 45.3% to 146,000 tons [10] - Malaysia's palm oil production in February was estimated to be 1.32 million tons, a 16.24% month - on - month decrease [10] - India cancelled about 25,000 tons of Russian soybean oil orders and 6,000 - 8,000 tons of South American soybean oil orders [10] - Brent crude oil futures rose for the fifth consecutive day, and European diesel futures reached the highest level since October 2022. Rising oil prices increase the attractiveness of palm oil as a biofuel raw material [11] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of February is expected to decline for the second consecutive month to the lowest level in four months [11] - Malaysia's palm oil production in February decreased by 19.35% month - on - month according to SPPOMA data [11] - Malaysia's palm oil exports in February were 852,629 tons, a 9.8% decrease from January [12] 1.3 Southeast Asian Weather - Not provided in the document 1.4 Three Major Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Price Trends - Not provided in the document 1.5 Oil Internal - External Price Difference Analysis - Not provided in the document 1.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the end of the 9th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0236 million tons, a 2.23% week - on - week increase and a 7.93% year - on - year decrease. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.0151 million tons, a 5.05% week - on - week decrease and a 5.22% year - on - year decrease; palm oil inventory was 714,300 tons, an 8.49% week - on - week increase and a 96.07% year - on - year increase; rapeseed oil inventory was 294,300 tons, a 16.79% week - on - week increase and a 61.41% year - on - year decrease [28] 1.7 Oil Basis Analysis - Not provided in the document 1.8 Oil Futures Spread Relationship - This week, the overall trend of oils is palm oil > rapeseed oil > soybean oil, and the soybean - palm oil spread has dropped significantly [45] 1.9 Oil Inter - Month Spread Arbitrage Relationship - This week, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil and palm oil rebounded slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil rebounded significantly [49] Part 2: Future Outlook 2.1 Seasonal Analysis - Not provided in the document 2.2 Next - Week Market Outlook - Technical level (main contracts): The short - term and medium - term indicators of soybean oil are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled; the short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of palm oil are bullish; the short - term and medium - term indicators of rapeseed oil are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled [61] - Fundamental level: In the international market, the MPOB and USDA reports will be released next week, and the market is concerned about the decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in February and the implementation of the US biodiesel policy. The Middle East situation is a key factor. If it eases, international oils may return to fundamentals; if it continues to ferment, they may remain strong. Domestic oils follow international trends. Pay attention to the position changes of the three major vegetable oil contracts, and reduce long positions if there is a reduction [62]