瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic urea market was strong first and then weak this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong was 1,840 yuan/ton, with the average price up 30 yuan/ton month - on - month. The ex - factory guidance price of urea in various domestic regions in March was 30 yuan/ton higher than that in February [6]. - The short - term agricultural demand for urea is expected to be good as the spring plowing in China will gradually start from the south to the north, combined with wheat top - dressing and the gradual resumption of production in industrial downstream. The production of high - nitrogen fertilizers in compound fertilizer plants has gradually started, and the industrial consumption of urea has increased significantly. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers will continue to rise [6]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,810 - 1,860 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,810 - 1,860 in the short term [6]. - Market review: The domestic urea market was strong first and then weak this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong was 1,840 yuan/ton as of Thursday, with the average price up 30 yuan/ton month - on - month. The ex - factory guidance price of urea in various domestic regions in March was 30 yuan/ton higher than that in February [6]. - Market outlook: The domestic urea production has increased slightly recently. It is expected that the production is likely to increase. The short - term agricultural demand is expected to be good. The production of high - nitrogen fertilizers in compound fertilizer plants has gradually started, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise. After the Spring Festival, the logistics and transportation have gradually recovered, and the inventory of urea enterprises has decreased. After the Lantern Festival, the shipment of urea factories may continue to increase steadily [6]. 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.92% [11]. - Inter - delivery spread: As of March 6, the UR 5 - 9 spread was - 13 [13]. - Position analysis: Not provided in the content - Warehouse receipt trend: As of March 6, there were 2,860 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 2,860 compared with last week [21]. 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic price trend: As of March 6, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1,880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [26]. - Foreign price trend: As of March 5, the FOB price of urea in China was 481 US dollars/ton, the same as last week [29]. - Basis trend: As of March 5, the urea basis was 66 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan/ton compared with last week [34]. 3.4. Upstream - Coal and natural gas prices: As of March 4, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5,500 kcal was 690 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton compared with last week. As of March 5, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.16 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [37]. 3.5. Industry - Capacity utilization and production: As of March 5, the production of Chinese urea enterprises was 153.79 tons, up 0.24 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.16%. The capacity utilization rate was 93.31%, up 0.15% from the previous period [39]. - Inventory: As of March 5, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 190,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,000 tons, an increase of 9.20%. As of March 4, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0981 million tons, a decrease of 77,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.62% [43]. - Export: In December 2025, the urea export volume was 278,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53.75% [46]. 3.6. Downstream - Compound fertilizer and melamine: As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.02%, an increase of 3.61 percentage points from the previous period. It is expected to continue to rise. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 49.54%, a decrease of 8.26 percentage points from last week [49].