市场情绪回暖，钢矿震荡走高：钢材&铁矿石日报-20260306

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has improved, with steel and iron ore prices fluctuating upwards. The main contract price of rebar oscillated and rebounded, recording a daily increase of 0.26% with shrinking volume and open interest. The supply and demand of rebar are both rising, and industrial contradictions are accumulating. The fundamentals remain weak, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. However, the valuation is low, and costs provide support. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5][36]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil bottomed out and rebounded, recording a daily increase of 0.31% with shrinking volume and open interest. Under the high inventory situation, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coils has not subsided, and demand resilience is weakening. The contradictions in the hot-rolled coil market are accumulating, and prices continue to be under pressure. The cost support is a relative advantage, and it is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom. Attention should be paid to demand changes [5][36]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated upwards, recording a daily increase of 1.38% with shrinking volume and open interest. The market sentiment has improved, and rising freight rates provide support. However, iron ore demand is weak, and supply has increased. The fundamentals of the iron ore market remain weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. The future trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to steel performance [5][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In 2026, the People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, flexibly and efficiently using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, to ensure sufficient market liquidity and match the growth of social financing scale and money supply with the expected targets of economic growth and price levels [7]. - In the arrangement of fiscal funds this year, three aspects have reached new highs: the total expenditure has exceeded 30 trillion yuan for the first time; the scale of newly issued government bonds has reached 11.89 trillion yuan, the largest in recent years; the central government's transfer payments to local governments have reached 10.42 trillion yuan, strengthening local fiscal security capabilities [8]. - In late February 2026, key steel enterprises produced 16.22 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.027 million tons, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period. Pig iron production was 15.18 million tons, with a daily output of 1.897 million tons, a 2.9% increase. Steel production was 16.89 million tons, with a daily output of 2.111 million tons, an 11.0% increase. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 17.34 million tons, a 4.3% decrease from the previous ten-day period, a 22.6% increase from the beginning of the year, a 17.9% increase from the same period last month, a 6.3% increase from the same period last year, and a 3.8% decrease from the same period the year before last [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,160 yuan, 3,120 yuan, and 3,301 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,230 yuan, 3,140 yuan, and 3,265 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet is 2,920 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,160 yuan. The volume-spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is 70, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,000 [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports is 765 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) is 765 yuan. The ocean freight rates from Australia and Brazil are 11.03 and 26.06 respectively. The SGX swap price (current month) is 101.01, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 101.35 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,088 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.26%. The trading volume is 704,303 lots, a decrease of 101,837 lots from the previous day. The open interest is 1,798,732 lots, a decrease of 38,543 lots [12]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract is 3,230 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.31%. The trading volume is 340,329 lots, a decrease of 49,271 lots from the previous day. The open interest is 1,398,808 lots, a decrease of 31,275 lots [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 772.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.38%. The trading volume is 264,664 lots, a decrease of 170,742 lots from the previous day. The open interest is 488,254 lots, a decrease of 10,515 lots [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report presents charts related to steel and iron ore inventories (including weekly changes and total inventories of rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore at ports, steel mills, and domestic mines), steel mill production conditions (including blast furnace operating rates, capacity utilization rates, and profitability of 247 sample steel mills and 94 independent electric furnace steel mills) [14][22][28]. 3.5 Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand have increased. The production of short-process steel mills has resumed, and the weekly output of rebar has increased by 82,100 tons. The demand for rebar has recovered as expected, but it is still at a relatively low level, and the incremental space is limited. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamentals are still weak, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to demand performance [36]. - For hot-rolled coils, both supply and demand have weakened. The production of plate mills has declined, and the weekly output of hot-rolled coils has decreased by 85,000 tons. The demand for hot-rolled coils has also weakened, and the demand resilience will continue to decline. Under the high inventory situation, the supply pressure has not subsided, and prices will continue to be under pressure. It is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to demand changes [36]. - For iron ore, demand has weakened due to environmental protection restrictions and poor profitability of steel mills, while supply has increased as domestic port arrivals are expected to rebound and domestic mine production is recovering. The market sentiment has improved, and rising freight rates provide some support, but the upward driving force is not strong. The future trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to steel performance [37].