棉系周报：基本面有所支撑，棉价震荡偏强-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market has certain fundamental support, and the cotton price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. The US cotton market is expected to be range - bound, while the Zhengzhou cotton may also have a short - term range - bound trend. Traders can consider building long positions on dips for Zhengzhou cotton but should avoid chasing high prices. For options, it is recommended to wait and see, and for arbitrage, also wait and see [29][42] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Domestic and International Market Analysis 3.1.1 International Market Analysis - US Cotton Market: The fundamentals of the US cotton market have changed little, and it is expected to be range - bound. As of February 27, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 3.0387 million tons, accounting for 100.3% of the estimated annual US cotton production, a 4% year - on - year decline. The weekly deliverable ratio was 71.2%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.7%, 1.1 percentage points higher year - on - year. The final inspection volume is expected to be around 3.05 - 3.07 million tons [9] - US Cotton Growing Conditions: As of March 3, the drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas continued to rise, and the drought level in the main producing areas and Texas was at a relatively high level in recent years. According to the quarterly outlook, the drought in the main US cotton - producing areas will continue from March to May, intensify in the central - western regions, and ease in the eastern regions [9] - US Cotton Sales: As of the week of February 26, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 34,100 tons, a 41% weekly decrease and a 50% decrease compared with the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 64,000 tons, a 46% weekly increase and a 43% increase compared with the average of the previous four weeks [9] - CFTC Data: As of February 27, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2605 contract increased by 1,563 to 20,815, an increase of 40,000 tons compared with the previous week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 2025/26 season increased by 2,667 to 35,139, equivalent to 800,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons compared with the previous week [9] - Brazil: Reports of excessive rainfall in the main producing state of Mato Grosso were exaggerated. Although many private forecasting agencies' production estimates are slightly lower than the official CONAB's 2.6232 million tons in the February report, nearly 70% of the crops were planted within the ideal sowing window [9] - Global Situation: According to the latest USDA February global cotton production and sales forecast, the global cotton production in February was 26.09 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons. China's total production increased by 100,000 tons to 7.62 million tons. The total consumption was adjusted down by 45,000 tons to 25.84 million tons, and the ending inventory was adjusted up by 140,000 tons to 16.35 million tons [8][9] 3.1.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - Supply Side: As of the week of March 5, the operating rate of national ginneries continued to decline to 5.78%, a slight increase of 0.29% compared with before the festival. As of March 4, 2026, the cumulative public inspection was 33,155,737 bales, totaling 7,484,308 tons, a 12.79% year - on - year increase. As of February 27, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.2676 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 87,800 tons (a 1.64% decrease) [29] - Demand Side: As of February 27, the cumulative sales volume of national lint cotton was 5.146 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.846 million tons and an increase of 2.309 million tons compared with the average of the past four years. As of March 5, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 73.2%, a 13.31% increase compared with the previous week [29] - Overall Situation: The current market contradictions are not significant. With the resumption of work in the downstream, the market has certain expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April". The cotton sales progress is still fast, at a high level in the same period of previous years. The cotton fundamentals have certain support, but considering that the previous positive factors have been reflected, it is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will be range - bound in the short term [29] 3.1.3 Futures Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected that the US cotton will be range - bound in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton has certain fundamental support, and traders can consider building long positions on dips but should not chase high prices [42] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [42] - Options: Wait and see [41] 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - Internal and External Price Difference: The document shows the historical data of the internal and external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 spread trend [45][46] - Cotton Inventory: It shows the historical data of national cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton industrial inventory, reserve inventory, and other aspects [48] - Spot - Futures Basis: It shows the basis data of cotton in different months and the basis trend of US seven - major market upland cotton [51]