02月中国PMI观察：需求淡季下的亮眼内需

Report Title - China PMI Observation Report, March 6, 2026: Bright Domestic Demand in the Off - season - February China PMI Observation [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In February 2026, both manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs were below 50, showing economic weakness. However, domestic demand in both sectors was a highlight. The domestic demand in the manufacturing sector reached the highest level since April 2025 and the second - highest in the same period in history, and in the non - manufacturing sector, it reached the highest level since May 2025. With the arrival of the peak season in March, economic data is expected to improve [4][6][30] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Manufacturing and Non - manufacturing PMI Data Table Review - Manufacturing PMI: In February 2026, it was 49, down 0.3 from the previous month and lower than the market expectation of 49.2. Most sub - items decreased, such as the finished - product inventory sub - item (down 2.8 to 45.8), new export orders (down 2.8 to 45), etc. Only the production - operation expectation, raw - material inventory, and domestic demand sub - items increased [3][4] - Non - manufacturing PMI: In February 2026, the business activity index was 49.5, up 0.1 from the previous month but lower than the expected 49.7. Most sub - items declined, while the input price, inventory, business activity, and domestic demand sub - items increased [3][30] 3.2 February Manufacturing PMI Reflects Economic Weakness - Overall Situation: The manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for two consecutive months. Most sub - items decreased, with only three sub - items increasing. Domestic demand was at a historically high level, which was the biggest highlight in the February data during the manufacturing off - season [4][6] - Seasonality: Manufacturing PMI, production, finished - product inventory, new orders, and new export orders were at the lowest levels in history (except 2020), while domestic demand was at the highest in the same period in history (except 2019) [6] - Enterprise and Industry Differences: Small and medium - sized enterprise PMIs declined, especially small enterprises, which were at the worst level since 2023. Large enterprise PMI increased, reaching the second - highest since November 2024. Among industries, the consumer goods industry recovered in February, while high - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and basic raw material industries declined [6] - Outlook: Due to the late Spring Festival in 2026, the decline in January and February data was affected by seasonality. Starting from March, the peak season will come, and data is expected to improve [7] 3.3 February Non - manufacturing PMI: Domestic Demand is also a Bright Spot - Overall Situation: The non - manufacturing PMI business activity was below 50 for two consecutive months. Most sub - items decreased, and the domestic demand sub - item increased, reaching the highest level since May 2025, going against the off - season trend [30] - Seasonality: In February, sub - items such as business activity, new orders, export orders, and construction and service industry PMIs were at the lowest levels in the same period in history (except 2020) [30][32] - Construction Industry: The construction industry PMI continued to decline, but the selling - price sub - item had bottomed out, indicating that housing prices may be stabilizing, but the sustainability needs to be observed [32]