固收周报：避险与宽松共振，债市收益率回落-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, bond yields "declined first and then rose", with an overall slight decline. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield remained around 1.78%, down about 5BP from the previous week's high of 1.83%. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield was around 1.29%, with the central value down about 2BP from the previous week. The long - end decline was larger, driving the term spread to widen by 3BP to 48.6BP. The main reasons for the decline in bond yields are the policy tone of the Two Sessions, the central bank's continuation of a "precise, powerful, flexible and appropriate" monetary policy, low capital prices, geopolitical conflicts, and the slow progress of macro - economic repair. The bond market is in an operating pattern supported by a loose environment with limited supply disturbances. In the future, attention should be paid to the phased impact of geopolitical changes, the implementation of Two Sessions policies, and the issuance rhythm of government bonds on the bond market [3][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Aspect - The monetary policy continues the loose orientation, and market liquidity remains abundant. The policy tone is clearly loose, with the government continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, using tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and focusing on key areas. There was a large - scale net withdrawal in the open - market operations this week, with a net withdrawal of 1.36 trillion yuan. However, the central bank used repurchase operations to hedge the due funds, and the overall liquidity of the banking system remained abundant [4] Fundamental Aspect - The growth target is realistically lowered, and the economic repair momentum is weak. The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5% - 5%, which is slightly lower but in line with expectations. The manufacturing PMI in February was in the contraction range, and high - frequency data showed that the economic repair was slow, with the production and price ends remaining weak [5] Supply Aspect - The issuance scale has rebounded, and the supply pressure has increased temporarily. The overall bond issuance scale this week reached 1.68 trillion yuan, with a net supply increase. Both interest - rate bonds and credit bonds increased in supply, and local government bonds were the main contributor to the increase. The government's fiscal deficit rate is maintained at 4%, and the supply of ultra - long - term bonds is 1.3 trillion yuan, which will relieve the long - end supply concerns in the short term [6] Capital Aspect - Liquidity remains abundant, and the capital price center has moved down. The inter - bank and financial institution capital interest rates have generally declined, and the market liquidity has maintained a loose pattern. Although the central bank's capital withdrawal in the OMO market and repurchase market was higher than the investment this week, the capital price remained low, indicating that the overall liquidity of the banking system is abundant [7] Overseas Market Aspect - The sudden conflict between the US and Iran had a limited impact on Treasury bonds. On February 28, the conflict between the US - Israel and Iran led to a blockage of oil and gas transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices. It also pushed up the prices of safe - haven assets such as gold, but had little impact on Treasury bond yields [7]