双焦：估值偏低，可逢低轻仓试多

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a long - position suggestion for coking coal and coke futures at low prices, with a short - term bullish view on the market and a mid - term view of wide - range fluctuations, suggesting trading in bands [1][5]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the coking coal and coke futures have large price fluctuations but no clear trend. Geopolitical conflicts drive up oil and gas prices, which in turn support coking coal prices through the transmission chain of oil and gas - thermal coal - marginal coal (coking coal blend) - prime coking coal. However, due to the long transmission chain and sufficient domestic coking coal supply, it's difficult to drive up coking coal prices significantly [5]. - The current valuation of coking coal is low. Affected by market sentiment spill - over, the coking coal and coke futures are expected to have certain support in the short term, showing a small upward wave. Attention should be paid to the price performance of oil and gas and thermal coal. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke is difficult to change qualitatively, and it is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, not yet forming a trend - based opportunity. Band trading is recommended [5]. - For unilateral trading, due to large price fluctuations and unclear trends, cautious investors are advised to wait and see. From the perspective of valuation and risk - return ratio, investors can also try long positions at low prices. In the medium term, it is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and band trading is recommended. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see. For options, selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Unilateral Trading: Due to large price fluctuations and unclear trends, cautious investors are advised to wait and see. From the perspective of valuation and risk - return ratio, investors can try long positions at low prices. In the medium term, it is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and band trading is recommended [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Coking Coal: The spot price of coking coal has declined this week, with major coal types dropping by 30 - 80 yuan/ton. The price of Mongolian coal fluctuated with the futures market. The overall expectation of the black market is weak, and downstream buyers are cautious in purchasing raw materials. With the rapid resumption of coal mine production and high customs clearance of Mongolian coal, coal prices are under pressure. However, due to the sharp rise in international energy prices, the downward space for spot prices is expected to be limited. The domestic coking coal supply is increasing, with the capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines rising to 82.32% (+14.08%). The customs clearance of Mongolian coal at ports is high, and the inventory pressure is emerging. The demand for coking coal has decreased slightly, with the coke output dropping slightly. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased, but the inventory of coal mines and ports has increased [7][8]. - Coke: The first - round price cut of coke has been implemented this week, with a reduction of 50 yuan/ton. The current supply - demand of coke is relatively balanced, the price of coking coal is fluctuating, and it is difficult to raise the price of coke further. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable next week. The coke output has decreased slightly, and it is expected to remain stable next week with slight fluctuations. Affected by environmental protection and other factors, the molten iron output has declined this week but is expected to rebound in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The total inventory of coke has increased, and the profitability of coke enterprises varies by region [9]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - Coking Coal Price: The spot price of domestic coking coal has declined, and the price of imported coking coal fluctuates. The price indices of low - sulfur prime coking coal, medium - sulfur prime coking coal, and coking coal have shown different trends [8][27][30]. - Coke Price: The first - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and the price of coke is expected to remain stable. The price indices of coke, ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade coke, and trade price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port have different trends [9][37]. - Coking Coal Basis: The basis of coking coal for Mongolian coal and Shanxi coal shows different trends in different contracts [40][47]. - Coke Basis: The basis of coke for port spot and Shanxi origin shows different trends in different contracts [56][64]. - Coking Coal Inter - month Spread: The inter - month spreads of coking coal (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) show different trends in different contracts [72]. - Coke Inter - month Spread: The inter - month spreads of coke (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) show different trends in different contracts [77]. - Coking Coal Mine Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has increased, and the output of raw coal and clean coal has also increased [12][82]. - Coking Coal Import Volume: The import volume of coking coal shows different trends from different countries [85]. - Imported Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance: The customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal at ports is high, and the number of vehicles shows a high - level fluctuation [8][88]. - Coke Enterprise Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises and the daily output of coke show different trends [91]. - Steel Mill Blast Furnace Production: Affected by environmental protection and other factors, the molten iron output of steel mills has declined, and the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate have also decreased [23][94]. - Coking Coal Inventory: The total inventory of coking coal has decreased, but the inventory of coal mines and ports has increased. The inventory of coke enterprises and steel mills has decreased [8][97][100][103]. - Coke Inventory: The total inventory of coke has increased, with the inventory of coke enterprises and ports increasing, and the inventory of steel mills decreasing [9][106].