PP日报：震荡上行-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - PP is expected to show a strong and volatile trend. After the Spring Festival, the domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, and the situation in the Middle East has boosted the energy - chemical sector. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of PP downstream production after the festival [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - As of the week of March 6, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises gradually resumed production but did not reach the pre - festival level. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 79%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to about 26.5%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons and has been decreasing since then. Currently, it is at a neutral level in recent years. The conflict in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which has significantly boosted PP [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward. The lowest price was 7,424 yuan/ton, the highest was 7,800 yuan/ton, and it closed at 7,797 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 4.18%. The position increased by 17,221 lots to 493,414 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions increased. The drawstring was reported at 7,320 - 7,980 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 6, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 79%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to about 26.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 6, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises gradually resumed production but did not reach the pre - festival level [4] - Inventory: During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. On Friday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 820,000 tons, 60,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Currently, it is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose above $85 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $35 per ton week - on - week to $890 per ton [4]