塑料日报：震荡上行-20260306

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View - The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved. With expectations of the chemical industry counter - involution and the situation in the Middle East boosting the energy - chemical sector, plastics are expected to show a moderately strong oscillation. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday resumption of production progress of downstream industries [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Market Analysis] - On March 6, new maintenance devices such as Fujian United's full - density line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 90%, which is at a moderately high level. The new capacities of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE (500,000 tons/year) and Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in January 2026, and there are no new capacity plans for the first quarter. The downstream resumption of production is slow, and the procurement intention is weak. The prices of agricultural films in North and East China have risen, while those in South China are stable [1]. - The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has led to blocked navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp increase in crude oil prices, which significantly boosts plastics. Iran's PE imports account for about 8% of China's total imports and about 3% of domestic production, while the entire Middle East region's imports account for about 20% of domestic production [1]. [Futures and Spot Market Quotes] - Futures: The 2605 plastic futures contract increased in positions and oscillated upward, with a minimum price of 7,360 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 7,695 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 7,691 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 3.88%. The open interest increased by 18,481 lots to 409,024 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PE spot markets rose, with price changes ranging from +0 to +400 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 7,470 - 8,170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,980 - 10,780 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,600 - 9,000 yuan/ton [3]. [Fundamental Tracking] - Supply: On March 6, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 90%, which is at a moderately high level [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week of March 6, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 10.4 percentage points to 28.62% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed production but have not returned to pre - holiday levels, showing seasonal changes [1][4]. - Inventory: During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. After the Spring Festival, inventory has been decreasing. As of Friday, petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 820,000 tons, 60,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year, and is currently at a neutral level compared to recent years [1][4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose above $85 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene increased by $50 per ton to $850 per ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene increased by $50 per ton to $820 per ton week - on - week [4].