橡胶甲醇原油：偏多氛围主导能化震荡偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Rubber: On Friday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly closing higher. The closing price rose slightly by 0.87% to 16,835 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread narrowed to 85 yuan/ton. As the new rubber - tapping season approaches, Shanghai rubber lacks the impetus to continue rising, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures will maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - Methanol: On Friday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rebounding. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,614 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,463 yuan/ton. At the close, it rebounded significantly by 2.33% to 2,586 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread widened to 108 yuan/ton. With the short - term geopolitical risks gradually digested and the lack of support from the domestic supply - demand fundamentals, methanol lacks the continuous upward momentum. It is expected that the methanol futures will maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [7]. - Crude Oil: On Friday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 696.6 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 622.1 yuan/barrel. At the close, the price slightly decreased by 0.14% to 664.8 yuan/barrel. As Iran announced that it has not completely blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the bullish expectation has weakened, and part of the crude oil premium has been reversed. However, the US - Iran conflict is still ongoing, and it is expected that the oil price will maintain a high - level volatile consolidation trend in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 679,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,200 tons, or 1.82%. The bonded area inventory was 118,100 tons, an increase of 6.52%; the general trade inventory was 561,800 tons, an increase of 0.89%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouses for the Qingdao natural rubber samples decreased by 6.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.39 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouses decreased by 8.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.02 percentage points [9]. - As of March 6, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of China's semi - steel tires was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of all - steel tires was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. After the Spring Festival, tire enterprises actively resumed production, and most enterprises have returned to the normal level this week, which boosted the capacity utilization rate of the overall sample enterprises. It is expected that there is still a small room for improvement in the capacity utilization rate of the tire sample enterprises next week. Currently, the production schedules of each enterprise have basically returned to the normal level, which will drive the overall capacity utilization rate next week. However, the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has increased the resistance to the order shipments in the Middle East, which may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises [9]. - In February 2026, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 56.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line [10]. - In February 2026, about 75,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market (wholesale volume, including exports and new energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales volume of the Chinese heavy - duty truck industry exceeded 180,000, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [10]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.41%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.11%, a month - on - month small increase of 1.73%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 8.70%. During the same period, the average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0732 million tons, a week - on - week small increase of 16,400 tons, a month - on - month small increase of 64,200 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 129,400 tons compared with 1.9438 million tons last year [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 28.27%, a week - on - week small increase of 1.61%. For dimethyl ether, the operating rate was maintained at 6.27%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.35%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.73%, a week - on - week small increase of 5.81%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.83%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.65%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.44 percentage points and a month - on - month small increase of 2.65%. As of February 27, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was 43 yuan/ton, a week - on - week small recovery of 39 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant recovery of 246 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the methanol inventory in the ports of East and South China was maintained at 975,300 tons, a week - on - week small increase of 32,600 tons, a month - on - month small decrease of 44,600 tons, and a small year - on - year increase of 76,200 tons. As of the week of March 5, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 552,400 tons, a week - on - week small increase of 17,100 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 184,000 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 142,300 tons compared with 410,100 tons last year [12][13]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 407, a week - on - week small decrease of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 79. As of the week of February 27, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 600,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year small increase of 1.88 million barrels per day, which was at a historical high [14]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding the strategic petroleum reserve) reached 439 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.475 million barrels and a year - on - year small increase of 5.504 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, United States reached 26.463 million barrels, a week - on - week small increase of 1.564 million barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 415.212 million barrels, which was flat week - on - week. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 89.2%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.6 percentage points, a month - on - month small decrease of 1.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year small increase of 3.3 percentage points [14]. - As of February 24, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 172,712 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 31,369 contracts and a significant increase of 99,898 contracts compared with the average of 72,814 contracts in January, with an increase of 137.20%. On the other hand, as of February 24, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 300,712 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 50,696 contracts and a significant increase of 116,266 contracts compared with the average of 184,446 contracts in January, with an increase of 63.04% [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from the Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from the Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,900 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 16,835 yuan/ton | +280 yuan/ton | +65 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,600 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 2,586 yuan/ton | +99 yuan/ton | +14 yuan/ton | +1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 579.4 yuan/barrel | +3.2 yuan/barrel | 664.8 yuan/barrel | +0.7 yuan/barrel | - 85.4 yuan/barrel | +2.5 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][19][21][24][26][28]. - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35][37][39][41]. - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [45][47][48][50][52][54].