山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.89%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.38%, the main contract of platinum closed down 1.20%, and the main contract of palladium closed down 1.79% [1]. - In the short - term, the risk of trade war has eased, and the risk of geopolitical changes in the Middle East may become normalized. The U.S. employment is strong, inflation pressure still exists, the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level, and the U.S. dollar index is strong [1]. - The air strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction, affecting the shipping, aviation, and oil industries. The world is facing the threat of rising energy costs and受阻 business activities in the Gulf region, and the market is worried that the Middle East conflict may be long - term [1]. - The U.S. labor market remains stable, and the labor productivity in the fourth quarter is still strong. The Fed's latest Beige Book report shows that the U.S. economic activity has slightly picked up recently, prices continue to rise, and the employment level remains stable. The Fed's January meeting minutes show that there are huge differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, and for the first time, the possibility of interest rate hikes is clearly mentioned [1]. - The market expects that the Fed's interest rate cuts are nearing the end, and the next rate cut may be in September. The U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields are oscillating strongly [1]. - The Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium is still resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel vehicle market [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - International prices: Comex gold active contract closed at $5151.60 per ounce, up 1.02% from the previous day and down 0.62% from last week; London gold closed at $5148.55 per ounce, up 2.28% from the previous day and down 0.83% from last week [2]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 1140.80 yuan per gram, down 0.97% from the previous day and down 0.62% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 1138.46 yuan per gram, down 0.88% from the previous day and down 0.35% from last week [2]. - Positions and inventories: Comex gold positions increased by 3.90% from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract positions decreased by 24.18% from last week; Gold TD positions increased by 0.40% from last week. LBMA inventory remained unchanged, Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.48% from last week, and Shanghai Gold inventory remained unchanged [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - International prices: Comex silver active contract closed at $82.52 per ounce, down 1.49% from the previous day and down 7.14% from last week; London silver closed at $84.22 per ounce, down 2.96% from the previous day and down 2.56% from last week [4]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 21639.00 yuan per kilogram, down 0.98% from the previous day and down 4.13% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 21068.00 yuan per kilogram, down 2.29% from the previous day and down 2.46% from last week [4]. - Positions and inventories: Comex silver positions remained unchanged from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract positions increased by 2.15% from the previous day and decreased by 0.04% from last week; Silver TD positions decreased by 3.52% from last week. LBMA inventory decreased by 0.32% from last week, Comex silver inventory decreased by 2.50% from last week, and Shanghai Silver inventory decreased by 16.52% from last week [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - International prices: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2178.60 per ounce, up 0.60% from the previous day and up 7.74% from last week; London platinum closed at $2138.00 per ounce, down 0.33% from the previous day and up 7.17% from last week [6]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 551.85 yuan per gram, up 5.36% from the previous day and up 1.25% from last week; Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed at 545.09 yuan per gram, up 3.82% from the previous day and up 0.20% from last week [6]. - Positions and inventories: NYMEX platinum active contract positions decreased by 1.43% from the previous day and decreased by 0.93% from last week; NYMEX platinum total inventory decreased by 0.89% from last week [6]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - International prices: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1809.50 per ounce, up 2.15% from the previous day and up 5.85% from last week; London palladium closed at $1727.00 per ounce, up 3.71% from the previous day and up 3.91% from last week [7]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 438.45 yuan per gram, up 5.19% from the previous day and up 0.07% from last week [7]. - Positions and inventories: NYMEX palladium active contract positions decreased by 24.12% from the previous day and decreased by 57.68% from last week; NYMEX palladium total inventory decreased by 0.32% from last week [7]. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value [8]. - Discount rate: 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value [8]. - Reserve balance rate (IORB): 3.65%, down 0.25% from the previous value [8]. - Fed's total assets: $66794.27 billion, up $150.57 billion from the previous value [8]. - M2 (year - on - year): 4.29%, up 0.36% from the previous value [8]. - Ten - year U.S. Treasury real yield: 2.43, up 1.67% from the previous day and up 3.40% from last week [8]. - U.S. dollar index: 98.80, down 0.48% from the previous day and up 1.03% from last week [8]. - Other economic data such as inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys are also provided in detail [8][10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability distribution of different interest rate ranges at different meeting dates from 2026/3/18 to 2027/12/8 is presented in a table [12].