郑棉：短期震荡，中长期仍有上涨空间

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The downstream is still resuming work. The expectations of the "Golden March and Silver April" and high production capacity strongly support the lower limit of cotton prices. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets and the narrow - range oscillation of US cotton limit the increase of Zhengzhou cotton prices. After a rapid sharp rise last week, it has entered an adjustment phase. In the medium - to - long term, the cotton planting area will decline in 2026, the supply - demand situation will improve, and cotton prices still have room to rise. The increase depends on the situation of the new cotton area [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - As of Thursday this week, the 328 cotton spot price index was 16,583 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 98 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 15,250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 1,333 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was 21,920 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Zhengzhou yarn contract was 21,055 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 865 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 250 yuan/ton [38]. - As of Thursday this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price index of imported cotton under the sliding - scale duty was 86 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton; the price difference with the port pick - up price of imported cotton under the 1% tariff was 152 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 324 yuan/ton. The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick - up price was 2,932 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,122 yuan/ton [40]. - As of Thursday this week, on the futures market, the price difference between the main Zhengzhou yarn contract and the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 5,805 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the spot theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure cotton yarn was - 1,990 yuan/ton, and the loss margin narrowed by 156 yuan/ton week - on - week [44]. - As of Thursday this week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 12,643; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 363 [51]. Supply and Demand - As of yesterday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price of imported cotton under the sliding - scale duty was about 3,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference under the 1% tariff was as high as 4,100 yuan/ton. Under the high price difference, the import profit of cotton yarn has recovered, and the import volume may increase [5]. - As of this Friday, the start - up load index of yarn mills was 49.09, and that of cloth mills was 48.3. Compared with previous years, the resumption of work this year is a bit slower; the raw material inventory of textile enterprises is at the highest level in the same period in recent years, and their purchasing willingness is not strong, and they replenish inventory at low prices [5]. - The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) released its March monthly report, showing that the global cotton production in the 2026/27 season is expected to decrease by 4% to 24.8 million tons, with the main production cuts coming from Brazil and the United States; the global cotton consumption is expected to remain stable at 25 million tons [6]. - As of the week ending February 26, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 34,100 tons, a 41% decrease from the previous week, a 50% decrease from the four - week average, and a 10% decrease year - on - year. Among them, Vietnam signed 11,500 tons and Pakistan signed 6,300 tons [20].