弘业纯碱周报：分析师范阿骄-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the sentiment in the soda ash market was tepid. The average daily trading volume of the main contract was 786,000 lots, a 11.3% increase from last week. As of the close on March 6, the open interest of the main contract was 1.758 million lots, with a cumulative increase of 119,000 lots from the end of last week. The market was mainly a game of existing funds, with limited inflow of incremental funds. Meanwhile, the incremental funds in the energy and chemical sector flowed significantly to the futures varieties in the crude oil industry chain, further weakening the upward momentum of soda ash. In the top 20 positions of the main contract this week, the long positions totaled 576,000 lots, with a weekly increase of 29,000 lots; the short positions totaled 648,000 lots, with a weekly increase of 51,000 lots. The increase in short positions was greater than that in long positions, and the selling pressure from the hedging positions of production enterprises at high levels was significant, which was one of the core reasons for the weak upward movement of the market. - The strong market in the energy and chemical sector this week could only bring short - term impulse catalysis to soda ash in terms of sentiment and could not change the fundamental pattern of soda ash itself. The core root cause of the lack of strong driving force for soda ash was the weak supply - demand fundamentals. High supply, high inventory, weak reality, and the absence of strong catalysts formed triple suppression. At the same time, short - term funds were significantly diverted by the sector market. Whether soda ash can stage a catch - up and a trend - like upward movement completely depends on whether the expectations can be substantially realized in reality before mid - March. Three irreversible signals should be core - tracked: the establishment of the inventory depletion inflection point, the concentrated implementation of spring maintenance, and the substantial release of downstream restocking demand. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - This week, the main SA2605 contract of soda ash futures fluctuated upward, reaching a new high for the year, but the overall upward trend was tepid, and no smooth unilateral market was formed. The spot market price remained stable, with only a slight increase in the North China region, while the mainstream quotes in East, Central, and South China remained unchanged. Under the pressure of high inventory, the spot price was slow to follow the futures price and could not effectively support the futures. The futures price rose ahead of the spot price, and the linkage between futures and spot was weak. The upward movement of the market lacked effective support from the spot fundamentals. The current core contradiction in the soda ash market is still the game between the strong expectations of spring maintenance and the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season and the weak reality of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. [4] Supply - This week, the domestic soda ash production was 807,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,000 tons, or 2.03%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 374,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 68,000 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 432,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 92,000 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.77%, compared with 85.04% last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.73%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of the ammonia - soda process was 90.45%, unchanged from last week, and the capacity utilization rate of the combined process was 76.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%. [4] Demand - This week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 738,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 53.26%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 93.32%, a week - on - week increase of 32.2%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 148,500 tons, stable compared with last week, and that of photovoltaic glass was 87,800 tons, a decrease of 800 tons. Next week, it is expected that 600 tons of float glass will be drained and 1,050 tons will be ignited; for photovoltaic glass, 1,600 tons are expected to be ignited. [4] Inventory - The inventory of heavy soda ash remains at a high level. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.9472 million tons, including 1.0273 million tons of light soda ash and 919,900 tons of heavy soda ash, a week - on - week increase of 52,800 tons. [4] Profit - Geopolitical factors have led to a sharp rise in energy prices. The increase in the prices of crude oil, natural gas, and coal has pushed up the production cost of soda ash. The increase in cost has supported the price of soda ash. Currently, the spot price of soda ash is relatively low, and some enterprises are incurring losses, but the loss amplitude is limited. [4]