钢材：地缘搅动频繁，钢价延续震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is affected by frequent geopolitical disturbances, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. The five major steel products have a slight increase in production, with an increase in rebar production and a shift in hot-rolled coil production. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand has a seasonal rebound, but inventories are still accumulating rapidly, especially for rebar. The capital availability of downstream construction sites across the country has improved, and the capital availability of housing construction projects is better than that of non - real estate projects. The "Two Sessions" have released this year's economic growth target, with the GDP growth rate lower than last year. The demand recovery situation remains to be seen, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the iron - water production this year, putting pressure on raw materials. Recent overseas geopolitical frictions have increased, which may drive up the cost of steel raw materials. During the "Two Sessions", steel prices generally maintain a volatile trend, but may return to the fundamentals after the "Two Sessions", and there is still pressure on steel prices. [7] 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - Supply: This week, the small - sample production of rebar is 173.31 tons (+8.21), and that of hot - rolled coil is 301.11 tons (-8.50). The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces is 227.59 tons (-5.69), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills is 19.3% (+17.9). The electric - arc furnace is in a loss state, but after the festival, the electric - arc furnace has a rapid resumption of production, and the daily consumption of scrap steel is 39.34 tons, with expected further production increase next week. Long - process steel is generally in a loss state, and steel mills have insufficient enthusiasm for production increase. [4] - Demand: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar this week is 98.23 tons (+64.68), and that for hot - rolled coil is 281.57 tons (+13.20). Downstream demand has a certain recovery this week but is still lower than the same period last year. The restocking demand of the manufacturing industry has declined, and overseas has entered the off - season. The capital availability of downstream construction sites is still weak. The growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment from January to December has continued to decline month - on - month, and there is a lack of incremental domestic project investment. In December, the decline in housing sales, land acquisition, completion, and new construction has narrowed, but still maintains a negative growth of about 20 - 30%. In February, the commercial housing sales in 30 large - and medium - sized cities across the country have a month - on - month decline of 26%, and residents' willingness to buy houses is insufficient, and the real estate market is still in a downward trend. The official manufacturing PMI in February is 49%, and the S&P Global manufacturing PMI is 52.1%. The manufacturing PMI in February has continued to decline, and new orders, exports, and production data have decreased due to the off - season of manufacturing demand and the decline in overseas demand. In January, China's automobile production has a year - on - year decrease of 2.09%, and exports have a year - on - year increase of 73.2%, with domestic demand declining and overseas demand increasing significantly. The production schedule of the three major white goods in March has a year - on - year decrease of 4%, and the decline has narrowed. Currently, it is the off - season for home appliance demand, but home appliance production may improve in April. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in February is 51.6, down from the previous value of 52.4, indicating a decline in the US manufacturing industry. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week is 213,000, the highest since the week of February 7, worse than the expected 215,000, but the US manufacturing industry is still in the expansion stage. The initial value of the euro - zone manufacturing PMI in February is 50.8, up from the previous value of 49.5, indicating an expansion, and the data of Germany and France have both risen above the break - even line, indicating that the euro - zone manufacturing industry is recovering. [4] - Inventory: For rebar, the factory inventory has an increase of 5.09 tons, the social inventory has an increase of 69.99 tons, and the total inventory has an increase of 75.08 tons. For hot - rolled coil, the factory inventory has a decrease of 4.70 tons, the social inventory has an increase of 24.24 tons, and the total inventory has an increase of 19.54 tons. For the five major steel products, the factory inventory has a month - on - month decrease of 1.49 tons, the social inventory has an increase of 105.38 tons, and the total inventory has an increase of 103.89 tons. [4] - Outlook: The five major steel products have a slight increase in production, with rebar increasing production and hot - rolled coil shifting to production increase. Steel mills are still in the mode of shutdown and maintenance. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand has a seasonal rebound, but inventories are still accumulating rapidly, with rebar having a faster inventory accumulation rate, and the inventory is shifting from factory inventory to social inventory. The capital availability of downstream construction sites across the country has improved this week, and the capital availability of housing construction projects is better than that of non - real estate projects. The "Two Sessions" have released this year's economic growth target, with the GDP growth rate lower than last year. Due to the possible lower - than - expected capital expenditure in the first quarter, the demand recovery situation remains to be seen, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the iron - water production this year, putting pressure on raw materials. Recent overseas geopolitical frictions have increased, and the resonance of oil and precious metals has an impact on black prices. If the frictions intensify in the future, it may drive up the cost of steel raw materials. During the "Two Sessions", steel prices generally maintain a volatile trend, but may return to the fundamentals after the "Two Sessions", and there is still pressure on steel prices. [7] - Trading Strategies: - Unilateral: Maintain a volatile trend. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread at high levels, and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil - coking coal ratio. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see. [9] Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - Spot Prices: On Friday, the rebar summary price in Shanghai is 3,190 yuan (-10), and that in Beijing is 3,100 yuan (+10). The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai is 3,230 yuan (-10), and the Hebei Steel hot - rolled coil price in Tianjin is 3,140 yuan (-). [13] - Profit: The cash profit of long - process steel mills in East China and Tangshan for rebar, and in Tianjin and East China for hot - rolled coil is presented in the corresponding charts. The flat - rate electricity profit of the electric - arc furnace in East China is - 235.43 yuan (-5.9), and the off - peak electricity profit is - 70 yuan (-6). [24][31] Chapter 3: Important Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data Summary - China: The official manufacturing PMI in February is 49, lower than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.3. China plans to set the deficit ratio at about 4% in 2026, with the target for the rise in consumer prices at about 2%. In 2026, 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will be issued (the same as in 2025), with 300 billion yuan of special treasury bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan of local special bonds. The expected economic growth target for 2026 is 4.5 - 5%. The National Development and Reform Commission of China will intensify the rectification of "involution - style" competition, orderly reduce the production capacity of industries such as steel and refining, strengthen the exploration, development, and reserve of strategic mineral resources, and build a reserve system. The government work report will strengthen anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition, strengthen the rigid constraints of fair competition review, and use means such as production capacity control, standard guidance, price law enforcement, and quality supervision to rectify "involution - style" competition and create a good market environment. [33] - US: The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 28 is 213,000, the highest since the week of February 7, worse than the expected 215,000. [33] - EU: The European Commission announced the "Industrial Accelerator Act" on the 4th, proposing requirements such as "Made in the EU" in public procurement and public support programs to enhance the internal value - creation ability of the EU and consolidate the EU's industrial foundation. [33] - Social Financing and Investment: In January, the new social financing is 722.08 billion yuan, up from the previous value of 220.75 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 2.36%. The new RMB loans are 471 billion yuan, up from the previous value of 91 billion yuan. Resident loans are 45.65 billion yuan, and enterprise loans are 445 billion yuan. The growth of social financing in January is generally stable. The issuance of government bonds, the year - on - year increase in short - term enterprise loans and short - term resident loans support the new social financing, while medium - and long - term enterprise and resident loans drag down the new social financing, and the willingness for production, operation, and housing purchase is still insufficient. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment is - 3.80%, down from the previous value of - 2.6%, and the growth rate has continued to decline rapidly month - on - month. Among them, the cumulative year - on - year investment in real estate development is - 17.2%, the cumulative investment in manufacturing is + 0.6%, the cumulative year - on - year completion of infrastructure investment is - 1.48%, and the cumulative year - on - year completion of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) is - 2.2%. The growth rates of the three types of investment have continued to shrink significantly month - on - month. The real estate market lacks fiscal support and remains a drag on domestic demand. The issuance of government bonds has slowed down compared with the same period last year, which has affected infrastructure investment to a certain extent. Enterprise loans are low, and the investment growth rate in the manufacturing industry has continued to shrink due to the lack of industrial prosperity. [42] Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - Supply: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces is 227.59 tons (-5.69), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills is 19.3% (+17.9). The small - sample production of rebar is 173.31 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8.21 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil is 301.11 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.50 tons. [60][65] - Demand: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar is 98.23 tons (a lunar year - on - year decrease of 57.9%), with a month - on - month increase of 64.68 tons. The small - sample apparent demand for hot - rolled coil is 281.57 tons (a lunar year - on - year decrease of 10.21%), with a month - on - month increase of 13.20 tons. The real - estate project resumption rate this week is 22.4%, with a month - on - month increase of 14.2 percentage points and a lunar year - on - year increase of 1.5 percentage points; the labor employment rate is 29.5%, with a month - on - month increase of 10.3 percentage points and a lunar year - on - year increase of 7.8 percentage points; the capital availability rate is 35.3%, with a month - on - month increase of 6.9 percentage points and a lunar year - on - year increase of 7 percentage points. The non - real - estate project resumption rate is 23.9%, with a month - on - month increase of 14.7 percentage points and a lunar year - on - year decrease of 0.3 percentage points; the labor employment rate is 29.8%, with a month - on - month increase of 15.8 percentage points and a lunar year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points; the capital availability rate is 35.6%, with a month - on - month increase of 6.4 percentage points and a lunar year - on - year decrease of 1.1 percentage points. The overall resumption rate across the country has a slightly narrower year - on - year increase, showing the characteristics of "faster in the south than in the north, priority for key projects, and differentiated capital". The issuance of special bonds in East China remains stable, and there are improvements in the northwest and south this period, ensuring project resumption. Projects in North and Central China are affected by regulations, and the project resumption rhythm is affected. The resumption progress of urban renewal and "two - major" construction projects has accelerated, and special bonds and debt - resolution funds are accelerating the shift towards people's livelihood and strategic projects. The capital of resettlement housing and affordable housing projects in housing construction projects has continued to improve, and the capital of high - speed rail and water conservancy projects in non - housing construction projects is guaranteed. In 2025, China's cumulative steel exports from January to December are 119.02 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, steel exports are 1.13 million tons, an increase of 132,000 tons from the previous month, with a month - on - month increase of 13.23%. According to high - frequency data in February, recent exports have declined due to export licenses. Due to the rapid appreciation of the RMB and the outbreak of the US - Iran war, orders from March to April have been affected, and there is a risk of a decline in steel exports in the future. [68][77][80] - Inventory: For rebar, the factory inventory has an increase of 5.09 tons, the social inventory has an increase of 69.99 tons, and the total inventory has an increase of 75.08 tons. For hot - rolled coil, the factory inventory has a decrease of 4.70 tons, the social inventory has an increase of 24.24 tons, and the total inventory has an increase of 19.54 tons. For the five major steel products, the factory inventory has a month - on - month decrease of 1.49 tons, the social inventory has an increase of 105.38 tons, and the total inventory has an increase of 103.89 tons. [4]