焦煤焦炭周度报告-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures market maintained a sideways shock trend. The coking coal fundamentals lack driving forces, with the upside limited by the restricted incremental space of post - holiday downstream demand and the downside supported by the energy premium from rising crude oil prices. The coke futures market follows the coking coal market, but its elasticity is constrained by inventory accumulation pressure [6][35][38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The double - coking futures market this week showed a sideways shock trend. For coking coal, after the Spring Festival, domestic mines resumed work earlier and gradually returned to pre - holiday levels, while coal washing plants resumed work later. Domestic supply has limited growth. Mongolian coal customs clearance has returned to pre - holiday high levels. Independent coking enterprises and steel mills mainly consume their own inventory and have low restocking willingness. For coke, during the Two Sessions, the overall coke production and hot metal production declined, and coke demand decreased accordingly. The profit of coking enterprises per ton of coke improved, but steel mills' profits were under pressure, leading to a new round of price cuts [6]. 3.2 Market Focus - Data: According to Mysteel, the total global coal shipping volume this week was 20.285 million tons, a 6.6% week - on - week increase. The shipping volume to China was 3.664 million tons, a 16.1% week - on - week decrease [7]. - Policy Opinions: During the Two Sessions, relevant representatives proposed that coal production capacity adjustment should shift from administrative to market - based regulation, and pointed out the trend of deep - mining of coal mines in China [7]. - Main Views: After the Spring Festival, coking coal supply gradually recovered; mine enterprise inventory removal was difficult; independent coking enterprises and steel mills mainly consumed their own inventory; during the Two Sessions, the coke production of independent coking enterprises and steel mills decreased slightly; hot metal production and coke consumption decreased simultaneously; a new round of coke price cuts was initiated [7]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Focus - Bullish Factors: The coking coal inventory structure has improved; domestic macro - policies are positive; geopolitical conflicts stimulate oil price increases, bringing a premium to coal in the same energy sector [10]. - Bearish Factors: Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level; during the Two Sessions, hot metal production declined; post - holiday downstream enterprises mainly consume their own inventory and have weak restocking motivation [10]. 3.4 Macro - Policy Analysis - Economic Goals: The government work report in 2026 sets the economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, the urban surveyed unemployment rate at around 5.5%, and the goal of creating over 12 million new urban jobs. The consumer price increase is expected to be around 2% [11]. - Policy Combinations: Fiscal policy is more proactive, with a deficit rate of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan in general public budget expenditures, and the issuance of special treasury bonds. Monetary policy is moderately loose, aiming to promote economic growth and price recovery, and maintain reasonable liquidity [11]. - Policy Focus: The report focuses on building a strong domestic market, with "new - quality productivity" as the main line. It promotes consumer spending through special treasury bonds, increases central budget investment, and supports the development of new - quality productivity - related industries [12]. 3.5 Data Analysis - Supply Recovery: As of the week of March 6, the开工 rate of 523 sample mines was 82.32%, a 14.08% week - on - week increase, and the daily output increased by 9880 tons. The开工 rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 26.57%, a 3.84% week - on - week increase, and the daily output increased by 2990 tons. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port has returned to pre - holiday high levels [15]. - Inventory Situation: As of the week of March 6, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased by 286,000 tons, while that of 314 sample coal washing plants decreased by 104,000 tons, and the port coking coal inventory decreased by 42,700 tons. The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills decreased, and independent coking enterprises' coke inventory increased [17][20][24]. - Production and Consumption: During the Two Sessions, the production of independent coking enterprises and steel mills decreased slightly. The coke consumption and hot metal production also decreased [26][28]. - Price Adjustment: As of March 6, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 17 yuan/ton, and the profit rate of 247 steel enterprises decreased. A new round of coke price cuts was initiated and implemented on Friday [30]. - Basis Structure: The double - coking futures market showed a sideways shock trend [32]. 3.6 Future Outlook - Coking Coal: Coking coal fundamentals lack driving forces. The upside is limited by post - holiday downstream demand, and the downside is supported by energy premiums. The market will mainly fluctuate sideways [35]. - Coke: The coke futures market follows the coking coal market, but its elasticity is constrained by inventory accumulation. During the Two Sessions, coke production and demand decreased, and a new round of price cuts was implemented [38].