利率债3月投资策略展望：区间震荡格局难破，关注短端和超长端

Market Review - In February 2026, the central bank's liquidity net injection exceeded 800 billion yuan, with a significant increase in reverse repos [6][8] - The issuance of interest rate bonds in February was 2.5 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous year, with government bonds showing a slight increase [8][9] - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated within a narrow range, closing at 1.78%, indicating a strong oscillation pattern in the bond market [16][38] Fundamental Outlook - High-frequency data suggests that exports are expected to remain strong in January-February, while inflation may continue to rise [21][29] - The manufacturing PMI data in February showed a decline, primarily due to the Spring Festival, but retail sales during the holiday increased by 13.7% compared to the previous year [26][29] - The real estate market showed signs of weakness, with a significant drop in transaction volumes in major cities [24][29] Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy remains "more proactive," with a focus on ensuring necessary expenditure and promoting domestic demand as a primary task [30][32] - The monetary policy continues to emphasize "appropriate easing," with a focus on fiscal and monetary coordination and the use of structural tools [36][37] - The government plans to reduce the net financing scale of government bonds in March, indicating manageable supply pressure [30][32] Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to face pressure from export and inflation data, but the government bond supply is not a major concern [38] - The market is likely to remain in a range-bound oscillation pattern, with opportunities in short-term bonds and long-term bonds [39]