Guoxin Securities·2026-03-06 10:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [6][9]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a positive trend with the production of air conditioners showing a year-on-year increase starting from April 2026, supported by a recovery in domestic demand and installation needs driven by housing projects [3][5]. - Prices of fluorinated polymers are on the rise due to cost support and supply-demand improvements, with notable increases in PTFE and PVDF prices [4][5]. - The report highlights the ongoing demand for refrigerants, particularly R32, R134a, and R125, which are expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, leading to potential price increases [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of February 27, 2026, the fluorochemical index rose by 4.35% compared to January, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.26% [1][16]. - The National Chemical Fluorochemical Price Index reported a slight increase of 0.21% for fluorochemicals [18]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - The prices of major refrigerants have increased, with R32 rising to 61,500-62,500 CNY/ton and R134a to 58,000 CNY/ton [2][23]. - The report notes a significant increase in the long-term contract prices for R32 and R410A, indicating a bullish market outlook [22]. 3. Demand from Liquid Cooling - The report emphasizes the growing demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants driven by the shift towards liquid cooling technologies in data centers, which are expected to see substantial market growth [56][67]. - The liquid cooling market in China is projected to exceed 100 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.4% [63]. 4. Refrigerant Quota for 2026 - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced the refrigerant quotas for 2026, indicating a slight increase in production quotas for R32, R125, and R134a, while maintaining strict controls on HCFCs [69][70]. - The report anticipates that the tightening of refrigerant quotas will support long-term price stability and profitability for leading companies in the sector [5][69]. 5. Air Conditioning Production Data - Air conditioning production is expected to see a year-on-year increase starting in April 2026, with a recovery in domestic demand and installation needs [3][81]. - The report notes that the overall production of air conditioners in March 2026 showed a decline of 6.1% year-on-year, but is projected to recover in the following months [81].