多晶硅：高库存积压，价格趋势下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - After the anti - monopoly regulatory signal, the previous sharp rise in the polysilicon market gradually declined, and the market returned to being dominated by fundamentals. The current prominent over - capacity and continuously high inventory levels jointly drive the polysilicon price to continue to decline, and the price may approach the cash cost in the short term. A trend reversal still requires fundamental improvement [3] Summary by Related Contents Price Trend - After the holiday, the polysilicon futures price continued to weaken, showing a downward trend. As of March 6, the main contract of polysilicon futures closed at 41,115 yuan/ton, and the intraday price touched the 40,000 yuan/ton mark [1] - The N - type dense material's lowest quotation dropped to 43,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,500 yuan/ton compared with the last trading day before the holiday [2] Influencing Factors - Polysilicon price fluctuations are deeply affected by industry policies. The ban on market coordination by relevant regulatory authorities in January this year was a key factor in the price decline [1] - The over - capacity problem is prominent. In 2025, the domestic polysilicon production capacity is about 3.35 million tons, which can support about 1,450GW of photovoltaic installation demand, while the global actual photovoltaic installation volume in 2025 is less than 600GW. In 2026, the over - capacity contradiction persists [1] - Both polysilicon and its downstream sectors are in a state of cyclical over - supply, with large monthly production elasticities. The uncertainty of cell production scheduling increases due to silver price fluctuations [2] - The inventory level is high. At the end of February, the polysilicon inventory reached 480,000 tons, which can meet nearly 5 months of demand. The silicon wafer inventory increased by about 5.2GW month - on - month, which indirectly affected the upstream polysilicon market [2] - The recovery of downstream photovoltaic demand after the holiday was less than expected, and the silicon wafer procurement demand was weak, which increased the inventory pressure and suppressed the price [2] - The exchange expanded the scope of delivery brand enterprises to avoid the risk of cornering, and the price on the futures market decreased for secondary pricing [2]