黑金深耕-基础深挖：海外冶金煤主要供应商年报梳理及海运焦煤市场展望-20260306

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the supply of the seaborne coal market was affected by many factors, resulting in a decline in the global seaborne coal supply. Mongolia's coal exports offset the reduction and created an incremental supply. In 2026, the annual supply of major global metallurgical coal suppliers is expected to increase by about 15.5 million tons, with 10 million tons from Mongolia [3][5][7][9] - The cost curve of seaborne metallurgical coal may shift upward due to shipping costs. In 2026, the impact of shipping cost fluctuations on the supply of imported seaborne coal market needs attention, which may further compress mine profits [10][12][13] - In 2025, global pig iron production declined slightly. In 2026, global pig iron production is expected to decline slightly by about 1 million tons, and the global metallurgical coal demand is basically flat. The seaborne coking coal market is expected to remain relatively strong [14][16] Group 3: Summary by Directory 25 years of coal mine production with many disturbance factors, partial resumption in 26 years but limited increment - In 2025, the seaborne coal market was affected by bad weather and coal mine accidents, and the coal production of some mines decreased slightly. Australia's coking coal exports decreased by about 5.22 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 3.4%. The global seaborne coal supply decreased, but Mongolia's coal exports offset the reduction and created an incremental supply of about 2 million tons [3][5][7] - In 2026, the annual supply of major global metallurgical coal suppliers is expected to increase by about 15.5 million tons, with 10 million tons from Mongolia and about 5.5 million tons from other sources [9] Shipping costs may cause the cost curve of seaborne metallurgical coal to shift further upward - The CFR cost of nearly half of global metallurgical coal suppliers exporting to China is in the high range of $140 - 160 per ton. In 2025, a certain proportion of seaborne coking coal supply was in a loss state. In 2026, the impact of shipping cost fluctuations on the supply of imported seaborne coal market needs attention [10][12][13] Overseas demand is expected to pick up slightly, and the seaborne coking coal market is expected to remain relatively strong - In 2025, global pig iron production was 1.233 billion tons, a year - on - year decline of about 2.3%. In 2026, global pig iron production is expected to decline slightly by about 1 million tons, and the global metallurgical coal demand is basically flat. The seaborne coking coal market is expected to be relatively strong compared with China's coking coal price [14][16]