沥青周度报告-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the asphalt futures market rose significantly, mainly driven by the increase in oil prices and positive sentiment. After the military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the attack on oil tankers led to concerns about oil supply disruptions, pushing up oil prices. Although the Iranian military stated that the strait was not blocked, the situation remains tense, and concerns about supply disruptions and further escalation will continue to support oil prices. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate with oil prices due to a lack of fundamental drivers [8][63]. - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach [9]. Summary by Directory Report Summary - Market focus: The Middle East tension continues, with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iraq shutting down its largest oil field [7]. - Key data: As of March 4, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 23.3%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous statistical period. As of March 6, the weekly asphalt production in China was 41.8 tons, an increase of 2.7 tons from the previous week. The factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 78.8 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons from the previous week, and the social inventory was 114.9 tons, an increase of 5.3 tons from the previous week [7]. Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: Continued and escalating conflicts, concerns about crude oil supply disruptions [12]. - Bearish factors: The US takes measures to stabilize oil prices [12]. Macro Analysis - Geopolitical situation escalation: On February 28, the US and Israel launched a military strike on Iran, and Iran retaliated. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the traffic volume through the strait dropped sharply. Although the Iranian military later stated that the strait was not blocked, the Revolutionary Guard still prohibited the passage of European, American, and Israeli ships, and there are differences within Iran on this issue, increasing the uncertainty of the strait's future [15][18]. - Limited alternative routes: Normally, the Strait of Hormuz carries about 19 million barrels per day of liquid exports, of which about 16 million barrels per day are crude oil. The existing bypass pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE can only divert about 3.3 million barrels per day, and the remaining about 15.75 million barrels per day of crude oil exports have no alternative evacuation channels. Middle Eastern oil - producing countries face the risk of insufficient storage capacity, and production cuts have actually occurred [24]. Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: As of March 6, the weekly asphalt production in China was 41.8 tons, an increase of 3.3 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of asphalt sample enterprises was 23.3% as of March 4, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous statistical period. After the Spring Festival, the refinery operating rate has entered a seasonal recovery cycle, and supply - side pressure is gradually emerging [25][32]. - Demand: As of March 6, the weekly asphalt shipment volume was 25.4 tons, an increase of 4.5 tons from the previous statistical period but a decrease of 6.3 tons year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt was 0.14% as of March 6, up 0.14 percentage points from the previous week. Overall, the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt has entered a seasonal recovery cycle, but it is expected to remain at a low level in the near future [35][38]. - Inventory: As of March 6, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 78.8 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons from the previous week, and the social inventory was 114.9 tons, an increase of 5.3 tons from the previous week. The social inventory continues the inventory accumulation cycle [45][52]. - Spread: As of March 6, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing and dilution was - 157 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of March 5, the domestic asphalt basis was - 219 yuan/ton. As of March 4, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 48.09. Recently, oil prices have risen significantly, and the asphalt trend is weaker than that of oil prices, resulting in a decline in the cracking spread and a weakening of the dilution asphalt processing profit. The basis has weakened significantly [61]. Market Outlook - International diplomatic efforts may improve the pessimistic sentiment about the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz to some extent. However, due to the tense situation, concerns about supply disruptions and further escalation will continue to support oil prices. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate with oil prices in the absence of fundamental drivers [63].