2026年《政府工作报告》点评：《政府工作报告》的债市信号

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a clear industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply - demand contradiction is prominent, with insufficient growth momentum in consumption and investment, and weak expectations. The 2026 economic growth is expected to be 4.5 - 5%, lower than last year. Fiscal policy remains mostly the same as last year, with an expected government bond net financing scale of 13.89 trillion yuan and a projected deficit rate of around 4%. Monetary policy is still oriented towards reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and may focus more on structural tools. In 2026, consumption subsidy support decreases while investment increases. The bond supply pressure is better than expected, and the supply - demand relationship may improve, presenting opportunities in long - term bond adjustments [2]. Summary by Relevant Content 1. Economic Environment and Goals - Domestic and International Environment: The external environment has a deepening impact, with geopolitical risks rising and the world economic momentum weak. Domestically, the task of transforming old and new growth drivers is arduous, the supply - demand imbalance is significant, and market expectations are weak [2][10]. - Development Goals: In 2026, the expected economic growth is 4.5 - 5%, the expected urban surveyed unemployment rate is around 5.5%, and the expected consumer price increase is around 2%. Other goals include balanced international payments, a grain output of about 1.4 trillion catties, and a 3.8% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP [2][10]. 2. Fiscal Policy - Budget and Deficit: The deficit rate is expected to be around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from last year. The general public budget expenditure is expected to reach 30 trillion yuan for the first time, an increase of about 1.27 trillion yuan from last year [10]. - Bond Issuance: The total new government bond issuance in 2026 is expected to be 11.89 trillion yuan. This includes a 1.3 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special treasury bond (unchanged from last year), a 0.3 - trillion - yuan special treasury bond (a decrease of 0.2 trillion yuan from last year), and 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds (unchanged from last year). The expected net financing scale of government bonds is 13.89 trillion yuan (including 2 trillion yuan of special bonds for debt resolution), similar to last year's 13.84 trillion yuan [2][10]. 3. Monetary Policy - Policy Tools: The central bank will flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. It may focus more on using multiple tools to lower the comprehensive financing cost, and optimize and innovate structural monetary policy tools [2][10]. 4. Consumption Policy - Subsidies and Support: The support for consumer goods replacement with old ones using ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is 25 billion yuan, a decrease of 5 billion yuan from last year. A 10 - billion - yuan fiscal - financial coordinated special fund to boost domestic demand is newly established [2][10]. - Promotion Measures: The government will implement a special consumption promotion action, formulate income - increasing plans for urban and rural residents, promote the upgrading of commodity consumption, and expand the scope of loan interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and service - sector business entities [10]. 5. Investment Policy - Central Budget and Special Bonds: The central budgetary investment is planned to be 755 billion yuan, an increase of 20 billion yuan from last year. 800 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds will be used for "two major" projects, and 800 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments will be issued [2][15]. - Private Investment: The government will implement policies to promote private investment, improve the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major projects, and guide private investment into new sectors [15]. 6. Industrial Policy - Traditional Industry Upgrade: The government will continue to promote the quality improvement of key industries, deploy major technological transformation and upgrading projects, and support large - scale equipment renewal with 200 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [16]. - New Productivity Development: It will foster emerging pillar industries and future industries, build a mechanism for the growth of investment in future industries, and promote the development of small and medium - sized specialized and innovative enterprises [16]. - Service Industry Expansion: The government will deepen the integration of advanced manufacturing and modern service industries, and expand and improve the service industry [16]. 7. Other Key Areas - Reform: The government will strengthen anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition, promote factor market reform, and advance fiscal, tax, and financial system reform [22]. - Opening - up: It will actively expand independent opening, participate in WTO reform, and promote the stable scale and optimized structure of foreign trade [22]. - Real Estate: The government will stabilize the real estate market through city - specific policies, promote the reform of the housing provident fund system, and explore new real - estate development models [22]. - Risk Resolution: It will actively resolve local government debt risks and financial risks in an orderly manner [23]. - Rural Revitalization: The government will consolidate and enhance the production capacity of soybeans and oilseeds, promote rural reform, and prevent large - scale poverty return [26][27]. - Urbanization: It will promote the citizenization of agricultural transfer population and the high - quality development of cities [27]. - Regional Coordination: The government will support the construction of world - class city clusters and promote the coordinated development of different regions [27]. - Green Growth: It will establish a national low - carbon transformation fund, promote carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and develop green industries [28]. - Livelihood: The government will promote employment, improve medical insurance and social security, and support the development of the silver economy [29].